Climate change and the future distributions of aquatic macrophytes across boreal catchments
Climate change and the future distributions of aquatic macrophytes across boreal catchments
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02412.x
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发表时间：
2011-02-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Luoto, Miska
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alahuhta, Janne;Heino, Jani;Luoto, Miska
水-陆交错带易受气候变化的影响，新兴水生植物带的退化将对淡水、湿地和陆地生态系统产生严重的生态后果。我们的目的是揭示未来的变化，在北方的突发水生植物区的发生和百分比覆盖的突发水生植被在不同的气候情景下，在芬兰的2050s.LocationFinland，北方Europe.MethodsData来自不同的GIS来源，估计未来的突发水生植物分布在芬兰的所有集水区（共848）。我们使用广义加性模型（GAM）与全逐步选择算法和赤池信息标准，探索的主要环境决定因素（气候和地貌）的挺水水生植物分布，这是来自国家的CORINE土地覆盖分类的子类。的分布模型（GAMs）的准确性进行了交叉验证，使用百分比解释偏差和曲线下面积来自接收器操作的特征plots.ResultsOur的结果表明，新兴水生植物将扩大其分布向北从目前的集水区和百分比覆盖将增加在所有的集水区在所有的气候情景。生长度日是影响挺水植物分布的主要因子。包括地貌变量明显提高了模型的性能，在两个模型练习相比，纯climate variables.Main conclusionsEmergent水生植物分布将扩大由于气候变化。在过去的几十年里，许多新出现的水生植物物种已经扩大了它们的分布，这一过程将在2051-80年继续下去。在北方淡水生态系统中，挺水水生植物对敏感的水生植物物种造成了越来越大的过度生长的风险，这在管理和保护行动中应该得到承认。我们的结论是，基于GIS数据的预测可以提供有用的“第一过滤器”的水生-陆地生态交错带的变化估计。
AimAquatic-terrestrial ecotones are vulnerable to climate change, and degradation of the emergent aquatic macrophyte zone would have severe ecological consequences for freshwater, wetland and terrestrial ecosystems. Our aim was to uncover future changes in boreal emergent aquatic macrophyte zones by modelling the occurrence and percentage cover of emergent aquatic vegetation under different climate scenarios in Finland by the 2050s.LocationFinland, northern Europe.MethodsData derived from different GIS sources were used to estimate future emergent aquatic macrophyte distributions in all catchments in Finland (848 in total). We used generalized additive models (GAM) with a full stepwise selection algorithm and Akaike information criterion to explore the main environmental determinates (climate and geomorphology) of emergent aquatic macrophyte distributions, which were derived from the national subclass of CORINE land-cover classification. The accuracy of the distribution models (GAMs) was cross-validated, using percentage of explained deviance and the area under the curve derived from the receiver-operating characteristic plots.ResultsOur results indicated that emergent aquatic macrophytes will expand their distributions northwards from the current catchments and percentage cover will increase in all of the catchments in all climate scenarios. Growing degree-days was the primary determinant affecting distributions of emergent aquatic macrophytes. Inclusion of geomorphological variables clearly improved model performance in both model exercises compared with pure climate variables.Main conclusionsEmergent aquatic macrophyte distributions will expand due to climate change. Many emergent aquatic plant species have already expanded their distributions during the past decades, and this process will continue in the years 2051-80. Emergent aquatic macrophytes pose an increasing overgrowth risk for sensitive macrophyte species in boreal freshwater ecosystems, which should be acknowledged in management and conservation actions. We conclude that predictions based on GIS data can provide useful 'first-filter' estimates of changes in aquatic-terrestrial ecotones.