Predicted habitat shifts of Pacific top predators in a changing climate
Predicted habitat shifts of Pacific top predators in a changing climate
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1686
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发表时间：
2013-03-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Block, Barbara A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hazen, Elliott L.;Jorgensen, Salvador;Block, Barbara A.
为了主动管理海洋生态系统，重要的是要确定面临风险的物种和对保护至关重要的栖息地。气候变化情景预测，到 2100 年，平均海面温度 (SST) 将上升 1-6 摄氏度（参考文献 1、2），这可能会影响许多海洋物种的分布和栖息地。在这里，我们使用太平洋捕食者标签项目中部署在 23 个海洋物种上的 4,300 个电子标签数据库，以及全球气候模型到 2100 年的输出，根据气候变化研究顶级捕食者的分布和多样性。根据观测到的物种分布模型（作为海温、叶绿素 a 和水深测量的函数），我们预测了物种特定核心栖息地和盆地规模生物多样性模式的变化。我们预测某些物种的核心栖息地将发生高达 35% 的变化，不同种群的栖息地变化速度和模式存在显着差异，整个北太平洋的生物多样性将大幅向北迁移。对于已经受到压力的物种来说，迁徙时间的增加和中上层栖息地的丧失可能会加剧种群数量的下降或抑制恢复。气候变化迫在眉睫的影响凸显了对面临多重威胁的生态系统进行适应性管理的紧迫性。
To manage marine ecosystems proactively, it is important to identify species at risk and habitats critical for conservation. Climate change scenarios have predicted an average sea surface temperature (SST) rise of 1-6 degrees C by 2100 (refs 1, 2), which could affect the distribution and habitat of many marine species. Here we examine top predator distribution and diversity in the light of climate change using a database of 4,300 electronic tags deployed on 23 marine species from the Tagging of Pacific Predators project, and output from a global climate model to 2100. On the basis of models of observed species distribution as a function of SST, chlorophyll a and bathymetry, we project changes in species-specific core habitat and basin-scale patterns of biodiversity. We predict up to a 35% change in core habitat for some species, significant differences in rates and patterns of habitat change across guilds, and a substantial northward displacement of biodiversity across the North Pacific. For already stressed species, increased migration times and loss of pelagic habitat could exacerbate population declines or inhibit recovery. The impending effects of climate change stress the urgency of adaptively managing ecosystems facing multiple threats.