Industrial investments and housing prices in China
Industrial investments and housing prices in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.iref.2022.11.039
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发表时间：
2022-12
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Junmin Wan;Qiqi Qiu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Junmin Wan;Qiqi Qiu
主要城市暴涨的房价造成了大量新房空置，这被定义为供过于求。我们使用投入产出表的直接投入系数矩阵来确定36个中国工业部门中的13个与住房相关。我们按行业估算2001-2016年的边际价值；部门投资用基于边际理论的面板估计来解释。13个住房相关行业的边际投资弹性为0.2412，其余23个行业的边际投资弹性为0.8539，所有行业的边际投资弹性为0.6956。房价格兰杰解释生产者价格指数（PPI）， PPI格兰杰解释36个工业部门的边际值。在房价暴涨期间，包括金属和水泥在内的所有13个与房地产相关的行业都出现了明显的过度投资导致的产能过剩。
Explosive housing prices in major cities have created a great deal of new houses that are vacant, which is defined as oversupply. We use the matrix of the direct input coefficients of an input–output table to identify 13 of 36 Chinese industrial sectors as housing-related. We estimate Marginalqvalues by sector for 2001–2016; sectoral investment is explained by panel estimations based on Marginalqtheory. The Marginalqinvestment elasticities of 13 housing-related industries, the remaining 23 industries, and all industries were 0.2412, 0.8539, and 0.6956 respectively. The housing price Granger explains the producer price index (PPI), and the PPI Granger explains the Marginalqvalues of the 36 industrial sectors. Overcapacity via overinvestment was evident in all 13 housing-related industrial sectors, including metal and cement, during the period of explosive housing prices.