Deciphering the expression of climate change within the Lower Colorado River basin by stochastic simulation of convective rainfall
Deciphering the expression of climate change within the Lower Colorado River basin by stochastic simulation of convective rainfall
复制标题
通过对流降雨的随机模拟解读科罗拉多河流域下游气候变化的表达
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Michaelides
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Singer;K. Michaelides
在旱地，对流暴雨通常在多个空间尺度上控制径流、径流、人类人口的供水和洪水风险以及生态水的可获得性。由于流域水平衡对气候很敏感，因此必须改进对流暴雨的特征，以便能够以高空间和时间分辨率对降雨量进行统计评估，并预测气候变化的可能表现形式。在这里，我们介绍一个简单的暴雨发生器，STORM，用于对流风暴模拟。它是使用一个旱地流域的雨量计网络数据创建的，但适用于任何地方。我们利用风暴来评估气候变化模拟下的流域降雨量，这些模拟反映了湿度/暴风雨的差异，从而提供了对观察到的或预测的区域水文趋势的洞察。我们的分析记录了历史上的区域气候变化，表现为降雨强度的数十年下降，我们认为这对科罗拉多河下游流域的短暂径流产生了负面影响，但对区域负径流趋势没有实质性影响。
In drylands, convective rainstorms typically control runoff, streamflow, water supply and flood risk to human populations, and ecological water availability at multiple spatial scales. Since drainage basin water balance is sensitive to climate, it is important to improve characterization of convective rainstorms in a manner that enables statistical assessment of rainfall at high spatial and temporal resolution, and the prediction of plausible manifestations of climate change. Here we present a simple rainstorm generator, STORM, for convective storm simulation. It was created using data from a rain gauge network in one dryland drainage basin, but is applicable anywhere. We employ STORM to assess watershed rainfall under climate change simulations that reflect differences in wetness/storminess, and thus provide insight into observed or projected regional hydrologic trends. Our analysis documents historical, regional climate change manifesting as a multidecadal decline in rainfall intensity, which we suggest has negatively impacted ephemeral runoff in the Lower Colorado River basin, but has not contributed substantially to regional negative streamflow trends.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0505734102
发表时间：
2005-10-18
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Breshears, DD;Cobb, NS;Meyer, CW
通讯作者：
Meyer, CW