Higher trends but larger uncertainty and geographic variability in 21st century temperature and heat waves
Higher trends but larger uncertainty and geographic variability in 21st century temperature and heat waves
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0904495106
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发表时间：
2009-09-15
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Buja, Lawrence
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ganguly, Auroop R.;Steinhaeuser, Karsten;Buja, Lawrence
生成可信的气候变化和极端情况预测仍然是一项高度优先的挑战，特别是因为最近观察到的排放量高于最坏情况的情况。全球地球系统模型的集合模拟的偏差和不确定性分析表明，21 世纪变暖加剧，热浪更加强烈，同时不确定性更大，区域变异性也更大。全球变暖趋势在整体上进行了统计验证，并在区域范围内进行了调查。当前十年观测到的热浪强度大于最坏情况的预测。模型预测对初始条件相对不敏感，而与最近的观测结果相比获得的不确定性范围比集合范围更宽。温度和热浪趋势的增加，以及更大的不确定性和变异性，表明适应或缓解决策更加紧迫和复杂。
Generating credible climate change and extremes projections remains a high-priority challenge, especially since recent observed emissions are above the worst-case scenario. Bias and uncertainty analyses of ensemble simulations from a global earth systems model show increased warming and more intense heat waves combined with greater uncertainty and large regional variability in the 21st century. Global warming trends are statistically validated across ensembles and investigated at regional scales. Observed heat wave intensities in the current decade are larger than worst-case projections. Model projections are relatively insensitive to initial conditions, while uncertainty bounds obtained by comparison with recent observations are wider than ensemble ranges. Increased trends in temperature and heat waves, concurrent with larger uncertainty and variability, suggest greater urgency and complexity of adaptation or mitigation decisions.