Effects of meteorological factors on epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: a statistical modelling approach based on theoretical reasoning
Effects of meteorological factors on epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: a statistical modelling approach based on theoretical reasoning
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DOI：
10.1017/s0031182004005013
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发表时间：
2004-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Habbema, JDF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Abeku, TA;De Vlas, SJ;Habbema, JDF
本研究旨在量化埃塞俄比亚疟疾传播不稳定地区气象变量与恶性疟原虫发病率之间的关联。我们使用了埃塞俄比亚33个研究中心在大约6-7年的时间内报告的经显微镜证实的病例的发病率数据。建立了一个模型，反映气象和发病率变量之间的生物学关系。一个模型，包括降雨量2和3个月前，平均最低温度的前一个月和恶性疟原虫病例发病率在前一个月的发病率数据拟合从各个地区。该模型产生了类似的高估百分比（19.7%的预测超过观察值的两倍）和低估百分比（18.6%低于观察值的一半）。包括最高温度并没有改善模型。该模型在发病率相对较高或较低的地区（解释总方差的85%以上）比在发病率中等的地区（解释总方差的55-85%）表现得更好。研究表明，在预测模型中需要一种动态免疫机制。的建模方法在研究天气-疟疾的关系的潜在的有用性和缺点进行了讨论，包括需要的机制，可以充分处理免疫疟疾的时间变化。
This study was conducted to quantify the association between meteorological variables and incidence of Plasmodium falciparum in areas with unstable malaria transmission in Ethiopia. We used morbidity data pertaining to microscopically confirmed cases reported from 33 sites throughout Ethiopia over a period of approximately 6-7 years. A model was developed reflecting biological relationships between meteorological and morbidity variables. A model that included rainfall 2 and 3 months earlier, mean minimum temperature of the previous month and P. falciparum case incidence during the previous month was fitted to morbidity data from the various areas. The model produced similar percentages of overestimation (19.7% of predictions exceeded twice the observed values) and under-estimation (18.6% were less than half the observed values). Inclusion of maximum temperature did not improve the model. The model performed better in areas with relatively high or low incidence (>85% of the total variance explained) than those with moderate incidence (55-85% of the total variance explained). The study indicated that a dynamic immunity mechanism is needed in a prediction model. The potential usefulness and drawbacks of the modelling approach in studying the weather-malaria relationship are discussed, including a need for mechanisms that can adequately handle temporal variations in immunity to malaria.