Association of Mobile Phone Location Data Indications of Travel and Stay-at-Home Mandates With COVID-19 Infection Rates in the US
Association of Mobile Phone Location Data Indications of Travel and Stay-at-Home Mandates With COVID-19 Infection Rates in the US
复制标题
DOI：
10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.20485
复制
发表时间：
2020-09-08
影响因子：
13.8
通讯作者：
Patz, Jonathan A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gao, Song;Rao, Jinmeng;Patz, Jonathan A.
在居家订单期间，人类的流动模式是否发生了变化？这种流动性变化是否与2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）曲线相关？结果-这一横断面研究使用匿名位置数据从超过45万移动的手机发现，中位旅行距离减少和呆在家里的时间在全国范围内增加，虽然有地理差异。在实施居家令后，各州COVID-19病例总数的经验倍增时间显著增加（即传播减少）。意义这些发现表明，居家社交距离命令在被跟踪时与COVID-19的传播减少有关。这项横断面研究使用匿名移动的电话位置数据来检查2019冠状病毒病期间美国各州颁布居家命令前后的旅行和居家时间模式。（COVID-19）大流行。重要性居家保持社交距离的规定是降低严重急性呼吸道综合征冠状病毒-2（SARS-CoV-2）传播率的一项关键非药物措施，但需要高比例的遵守。目的探讨人群流动性变化率与SARS-CoV-2感染确诊率之间的关系。设计、设置和参与者这项横断面研究使用了从2020年3月11日至4月10日数百万匿名移动的电话位置数据中得出的每日出行距离和居家停留时间，由笛卡尔实验室和SafeGraph提供，以量化美国50个州和哥伦比亚特区遵守社交距离规定的程度，以及流动性变化与2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）病例。2019冠状病毒病疫情期间国家级居家令。主要结果及衡量指标主要结果为各州COVID-19确诊病例比率与匿名移动的电话用户的中位旅行距离和中位居家停留时间变化率的关联。增长率是通过对COVID-19累计确诊病例进行曲线拟合的指数来衡量的，而流动性变化（增加或减少）率则是通过对每个州的中位旅行距离和中位居家停留时间进行曲线拟合的斜率系数来衡量的。结果分析了来自超过4500万个匿名移动的电话设备的数据。COVID-19增加率与出行距离减少率之间的相关性为-0.586（95%CI，-0.742至-0.370），COVID-19增加率与居家停留时间增加率之间的相关性为0.526（95%CI，0.293至0.700）。所有病例的特定状态倍增时间增加1.0至6.9天（中位数[四分位数范围]，2.7 [2.3-3.3]天）在颁布居家令之前为3.7至30.3天（中位数[四分位距]，6.0 [4.8-7.1]天）后，留在家里的社交距离命令到位，与流行病建模结果一致。结论和相关性这些研究结果表明，当居家社交距离强制措施之后出现可衡量的流动性变化时，与COVID-19传播的减少有关。这些结果是在美国各州开始放松社交距离政策并重新开放经济的关键时期得出的。这些发现支持了社交距离的有效性，并有助于在COVID-19重新出现的后期恢复社交距离政策时为未来实施社交距离政策提供信息。
Question Did human mobility patterns change during stay-at-home orders and were the mobility changes associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) curve? Findings This cross-sectional study using anonymous location data from more than 45 million mobile phones found that median travel distance decreased and stay-at-home time increased across the nation, although there was geographic variation. State-specific empirical doubling time of total COVID-19 cases increased (ie, the spread reduced) significantly after stay-at-home orders were put in place. Meaning These findings suggest that stay-at-home social distancing mandates were associated with the reduced spread of COVID-19 when they were followed.This cross-sectional study uses anonymous mobile phone location data to examine travel and home dwell time patterns before and after enactment of stay-at-home orders in US states during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.Importance A stay-at-home social distancing mandate is a key nonpharmacological measure to reduce the transmission rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), but a high rate of adherence is needed. Objective To examine the association between the rate of human mobility changes and the rate of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Design, Setting, and Participants This cross-sectional study used daily travel distance and home dwell time derived from millions of anonymous mobile phone location data from March 11 to April 10, 2020, provided by the Descartes Labs and SafeGraph to quantify the degree to which social distancing mandates were followed in the 50 US states and District of Columbia and the association of mobility changes with rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. Exposure State-level stay-at-home orders during the COVID-19 pandemic. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcome was the association of state-specific rates of COVID-19 confirmed cases with the change rates of median travel distance and median home dwell time of anonymous mobile phone users. The increase rates are measured by the exponent in curve fitting of the COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases, while the mobility change (increase or decrease) rates were measured by the slope coefficient in curve fitting of median travel distance and median home dwell time for each state. Results Data from more than 45 million anonymous mobile phone devices were analyzed. The correlation between the COVID-19 increase rate and travel distance decrease rate was -0.586 (95% CI, -0.742 to -0.370) and the correlation between COVID-19 increase rate and home dwell time increase rate was 0.526 (95% CI, 0.293 to 0.700). Increases in state-specific doubling time of total cases ranged from 1.0 to 6.9 days (median [interquartile range], 2.7 [2.3-3.3] days) before stay-at-home orders were enacted to 3.7 to 30.3 days (median [interquartile range], 6.0 [4.8-7.1] days) after stay-at-home social distancing orders were put in place, consistent with pandemic modeling results. Conclusions and Relevance These findings suggest that stay-at-home social distancing mandates, when they were followed by measurable mobility changes, were associated with reduction in COVID-19 spread. These results come at a particularly critical period when US states are beginning to relax social distancing policies and reopen their economies. These findings support the efficacy of social distancing and could help inform future implementation of social distancing policies should they need to be reinstated during later periods of COVID-19 reemergence.