Wind Over the Adriatic Region in CORDEX Climate Change Scenarios
Wind Over the Adriatic Region in CORDEX Climate Change Scenarios
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CORDEX 气候变化情景中亚得里亚海地区的风
DOI：
10.1029/2018jd028552
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Telišman Prtenjak
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Belušić Vozila;I. Güttler;B. Ahrens;Anika Obermann;M. Telišman Prtenjak
用高分辨率(0.11°)协调区域气候降尺度试验(CORDEX)模拟了两种温室气体情景(代表浓度路径4.5和代表浓度路径8.5)下亚得里亚海地区的近地表风场。更详细地探讨了区域气候模式与全球气候模式和排放情景的特定组合对近地表风场未来变化的影响。从整个CORDEX区域大尺度气流中的季节性气候变化信号开始，我们重点研究了亚得里亚海区域的区域逐日风场和著名的区域风(Bora和Sirocco风)的次日特征。分析表明，模拟风流中的气候变化信号对(I)提供边界条件的全球气候模式的选择和(Ii)亚得里亚海地区所分析的位置具有很强的敏感性。21世纪预报的结果表明，天气活动的变化对(亚)日尺度上的风场有影响。我们发现，冬季亚得里亚海北部的BORA事件数量减少，Sirocco事件数量增加，21世纪中叶气压增加。总体而言，除亚得里亚海北部的博拉事件外，博拉和西罗科事件期间的平均风速都有所降低。对于夏季，我们发现热诱导气流的数量有很大的增加，这可能是由于亚速尔高压的减弱造成的。
Near‐surface winds over the Adriatic region are examined under present‐day and future climate conditions for two greenhouse gas scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) with an ensemble of high‐resolution (0.11°) Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) simulations. The influence of particular combinations of regional climate models and global climate models and emission scenarios on the future changes in the near‐surface wind field has been explored in more detail. Starting with the seasonal climate change signal in large‐scale flow over the entire CORDEX domain, we focus on regional daily wind fields over the Adriatic domain and subdaily features of well‐known regional winds (Bora and Sirocco winds). The analysis reveals the strong sensitivity of the climate change signal in the simulated wind flow to (i) the choice of the global climate model that provides the boundary conditions and (ii) the analyzed locations across the Adriatic region. The results of the 21st‐century projections indicate that the changes in synoptic activity have an impact on the wind field at the (sub)daily time scale. We found a reduction in the number of Bora events and increase in the number of Sirocco events in northern Adriatic during the winter season, with an increase in pressure in the middle of the 21st century. Overall, the mean wind speed during Bora and Sirocco events is reduced, except for Bora in northern Adriatic. For the summer season, we found a large increase in the number of thermally induced flows, which is probably caused by the weakening of the Azores High.