Assessing risk amid uncertainty inside and outside the dermatology clinic.
Assessing risk amid uncertainty inside and outside the dermatology clinic.
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在皮肤科诊所内外的不确定性中评估风险。
DOI：
10.1016/j.jaad.2023.06.038
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
13.8
通讯作者：
Harris,JohnE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Vanderweil,StefanG;Yang,Caroline;Pagani,Kyla;Chuprin,Jane;Bernhard,Jeffrey;Harris,JohnE
生活充满了风险，有些是例行公事，有些是罕见的。我们每天都面临着接受或尽量减少风险以实现或可能失去特定利益的决定。然而，决策往往不是基于数字风险效益比，而是基于感知，而感知可能准确，也可能不准确。我们倾向于高估小风险，特别是如果潜在的危害是灾难性的，因为许多人害怕死于飞机失事（2019年航空和航天事故的终身风险约为1：11，108），超过他们担心死于机动车事故（MVA）（2019年的终身风险约为1：107）或枪支袭击（2019年的终身风险为1：218）（Mendeley补充表1）。2.在做决定时，医生会考虑与患者治疗相关的风险以及我们自己的法医学风险。推荐干预措施，甚至不推荐干预措施，都有风险。此外，患者必须决定是否接受建议，这不仅取决于相关的风险和益处，而且还取决于他们的感知，这受到他们自己的经验和世界观以及医生对这些风险的解释的影响。
Life is replete with risks, some routine, others rare. We are confronted daily with decisions to accept or minimize risks to achieve, or potentially lose, a particular benefit. However, decisions are often not based on the numerical risk-benefit ratio, but perception, which may or may not be accurate. We tend to overestimate small risks, particularly if the potential harm is catastrophic1, as many fear dying in a plane crash (lifetime risk air and space accidents of about 1: 11,108 in 2019), more than they fear dying in a motor vehicle accident (MVA)(lifetime risk of about 1: 107 in 2019), or by firearm assault (lifetime risk 1: 218 in 2019)(Mendeley Supplemental Table 1). 2When making decisions, physicians consider risks associated with treatments for our patients and our own medicolegal risk. There are risks associated with recommending interventions and even not recommending them. Furthermore, patients must decide whether to accept a recommendation, which not only depends on associated risks and benefits, but their perception, which is influenced by their own experience and worldview, as well as the practitioner’s explanation of those risks.