THE ESTIMATION OF AGE-RELATED RATES OF INFECTION FROM CASE NOTIFICATIONS AND SEROLOGICAL DATA
THE ESTIMATION OF AGE-RELATED RATES OF INFECTION FROM CASE NOTIFICATIONS AND SEROLOGICAL DATA
复制标题
DOI：
10.1017/s0022172400062859
复制
发表时间：
1985-01-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
ANDERSON, RM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
GRENFELL, BT;ANDERSON, RM
本文描述了一种最大似然方法，用于估计与年龄相关的人均感染率变化，从病例报告记录或血清学数据。这些方法应用于英国和美国的麻疹发病率记录，其中估计的感染率倾向于在10岁左右上升到最大值，然后在年龄较大的年龄组中下降。通过参考感染时估计平均年龄的变化来分析长期和季节性趋势；根据对特定年龄感染率的了解得出的统计数字。讨论了直接传播的病毒和细菌疾病的流行病学研究中未来的数据需求，并参考了疾病传播年龄依赖率的检测和解释。
The paper describes a maximum-likelihood method for the estimation of age-related changes in the per capita rate of infection, from case notification records or serological data. The methods are applied to records of measles incidence in the UK and USA, for which the estimated rates of infection tend to rise to a maximum value at around 10 years of age and then to decline in the older age-classes. Longer-term and seasonal trends are analysed by reference to changes in the estimated average age at infection; a statistic derived from a knowledge of the age-specific rates of infection. Future data needs in the epidemiological study of directly transmitted viral and bacterial diseases are discussed with reference to the detection and interpretation of age-dependent rates of disease transmission.