A strategy for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050-猫眼课题宝

到 2050 年实现净零排放的战略

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2021

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作者：

D. Hendry;Jennifer L. Castle

要实现温室气体(GHG)净零排放的目标，需要一项综合战略，以消除所有化石燃料和其他温室气体排放者、较少的自然吸收和碳捕获与储存(CCS)，并可能结合大气中二氧化碳的提取。清洁发电可以用已知的技术实现，但在可再生能源无法发电的情况下，存储是必不可少的。小型模块化核反应堆(SMR)可以帮助提供后台供应，但可以通过对运输部门进行脱碳，然后使用连接到智能车辆到电网网络的电动汽车来促进存储，这也有助于平衡电流量。单靠电池似乎不足以做到这一点，因此我们建议使用基于石墨烯的纳米管(GNTS)为电动汽车提供超级电容器，这种纳米管可以快速充电和放电，通过取消催化转化器来降低汽车制造成本。GNT可以提供火车，以取代柴油-电动，而且非常轻，因此有助于电动飞机的发展。通过确保可再生能源电力供应的连续性，产能可以扩大。这可能会在电力需求较低时维持甲烷热解或电解生产氢气，用于燃料电池，并取代家庭使用的甲烷，而液氢为工业提供高热源。新建筑必须为零。可再生能源电力具有完全的价格竞争力，特别是考虑到GNT车辆的免费存储；石墨烯价格正在下降，纳米管制造和SMR可能存在`摩尔定律‘S定律。氢气是一种比甲烷更昂贵的燃料，但在非高峰时段生产氢气可以通过维持100%持续的可再生能源发电来节省成本。所有这些发展相互作用，应该会保持新行业的就业，实现人均实际增长，同时翻新车辆和住房。相关技能已经存在，从离岸外包、制造和供应，到制造电动发动机。对不可回收和高碳含量的产品(如塑料袋)征税将激励替代产品。碳定价、总量管制和交易、研究支持、伟大创意奖等常用工具仍然存在。甲烷、一氧化二氮和二氧化碳排放是现代食品生产的副产品。改变饮食可以减少反刍动物的排放，减少氮肥的使用，用也能吸收二氧化碳的玄武岩粉尘取代一些氮肥，可以减少一氧化二氮的排放。改变动物的饮食可以节省成本，饲料投入更少，因为它们产生的甲烷浪费能源；而且富含矿物质的玄武岩粉尘比人造肥料便宜得多。作物生产效率可以大大提高，有利于环境，减少农田，以及垂直和地下农场。水产养殖业(包括海藻生产)可以得到极大的改善，并指出离岸风力发电场也是海洋保护区。人类饮食改变为少吃哺乳动物肉是可行的。大流行应对措施证实快速调整是可行的。英国的分析是因为它创造了导致温室气体问题的工业革命；其2008年的气候变化法案显著减少了排放，而总成本很低；我们从经济和气候角度对其表现进行了建模。

To achieve greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets of net zero requires an integrated strategy to remove all fossil fuel and other GHG emitters, less natural absorption and carbon capture and storage (CCS), possibly combined with atmospheric CO2 extraction. Clean electricity generation is achievable with known technologies, but storage is essential for when renewables cannot generate power. Small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) could help with background supply, but storage can be facilitated by decarbonizing the transport sector then using electric vehicles plugged into an intelligent vehicle-to-grid network also helping balance electricity flows. Batteries alone seem inadequate for this, so we propose supplying electric vehicles with supercapacitors using graphene-based nanotubes (GNTs) which can charge and discharge rapidly, offset by reducing costs in vehicle manufacture from eliminating catalytic convertors. GNTs could supply trains in place of diesel-electric, and are very light so help developments in electric aircraft. By ensuring continuity of renewables electricity supply, capacity can expand. This could sustain methane pyrolosis or electrolysis production of hydrogen gas when electricity demand is low, for fuel cells and to replace households’ methane use while liquid hydrogen offers a high heat source for industry. New buildings must be constructed as net zero.Renewables electricity is fully price competitive, especially given free storage from GNT vehicles; graphene prices are falling and there may be `Moore’s laws’ for nanotube manufacture and SMRs. Hydrogen is a more expensive fuel than methane, but its production at `off-peak’ could be cost saving by sustaining 100% continuous renewables’ generation. All these developments interact and should maintain employment in new industries with real per-capita growth, while retrofitting vehicles and housing. Relevant skills already exist, from off-shoring, manufacturing and supply, through making electric engines. Taxing non-recyclable and high-carbon content products (as with plastic bags) would incentivise alternatives. The usual tools of carbon pricing, cap and trade, research support, prizes for great ideas etc., remain available.Methane, nitrous oxide and CO2 emissions are by-products of modern food production. Ruminant emissions can be reduced by dietary changes, and nitrous oxide by reducing nitrogen fertiliser use, replacing some by basalt dust that also absorbs CO2. Animal dietary changes could be cost saving with lower feed input, as their methane production wastes energy; and mineral rich basalt dust is far cheaper than artificial fertilisers. Crop production efficiency can be greatly improved, benefitting the environment and reducing cropland, along with vertical and underground farms. Aquaculture (including seaweed production) could be greatly improved, noting that off-shore wind farms also act as marine reserves. Human dietary changes to eating less mammal meat are feasible. Pandemic responses confirm rapid adjustment is feasible.The analysis is illustrated by the UK because it created the Industrial Revolution leading to the GHG problem; its Climate Change Act  of 2008 has markedly reduced its emissions at little aggregate cost; and we have modelled its performance in economic and climate terms.

A strategy for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050

到 2050 年实现净零排放的战略

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