A mechanistic modeling system for estimating large-scale emissions and transport of pollen and co-allergens
A mechanistic modeling system for estimating large-scale emissions and transport of pollen and co-allergens
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.12.008
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发表时间：
2011-04-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Georgopoulos, Panos
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Efstathiou, Christos;Isukapalli, Sastry;Georgopoulos, Panos
过敏性气道疾病是一种复杂的健康问题，花粉颗粒和空气污染物（如臭氧）的协同作用会加剧这一问题。了解人类暴露于空气过敏原需要准确估计空气中花粉水平的空间分布以及不同时间的各种空气污染物。然而，目前还没有确定的方法来估计过敏性花粉排放和浓度在大的地理区域，如美国。通过调整现有区域尺度空气质量模型和植被数据库的组成部分，开发了一个用于描述花粉排放和运输的机制模型系统。首先，生物源排放清单系统（BEIS）的组件进行了调整，以预测花粉排放模式。随后，社区多尺度空气质量（CMAQ）建模系统的运输模块进行了修改，将花粉运输的描述。CMAQ-pollen组合模型允许在单个模型模拟中同时预测多种空气污染物和花粉水平，并使用与多种化学品和花粉种类的运输相关的一致假设。应用案例研究，评估组合建模系统，包括2002年的桦树和豚草花粉水平的模拟，在相应的高峰授粉期（4月桦树和豚草9月）。模型模拟是由以前评估的气象模型输出和排放清单为美国东部的模拟期间。在新泽西州纽瓦克，使用树和豚草花粉计数对CMAQ花粉进行半定量评价。桦树花粉浓度的峰值预计发生在两天内的峰值测量，而时间模式密切遵循测得的配置文件的整体树花粉。对于豚草花粉的情况下，该模型能够捕捉到2002年9月期间观察到的模式，但没有预测早期高峰，这可能与更广泛的物种授粉窗口和空间信息不足，在目前的土地覆盖数据库。一个额外的敏感性模拟进行比较评估的分散模式预测CMAQ花粉与混合单粒子拉格朗日积分轨迹（HYSPLIT）模型，这是广泛使用的空气生物学研究预测。CMAQ估算的浓度羽流与HYSPLIT模拟的等效花粉情景相匹配。这里提出的新的花粉建模方法可以同时估计多种空气中的过敏原和其他空气污染物，并正在开发作为一个综合的人口暴露建模系统的核心组成部分，建模环境的总风险研究（MENTOR）的多个，共同发生的污染物，包括空气过敏原和刺激物。(C)2010爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Allergic airway diseases represent a complex health problem which can be exacerbated by the synergistic action of pollen particles and air pollutants such as ozone. Understanding human exposures to aeroallergens requires accurate estimates of the spatial distribution of airborne pollen levels as well as of various air pollutants at different times. However, currently there are no established methods for estimating allergenic pollen emissions and concentrations over large geographic areas such as the United States. A mechanistic modeling system for describing pollen emissions and transport over extensive domains has been developed by adapting components of existing regional scale air quality models and vegetation databases. First, components of the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS) were adapted to predict pollen emission patterns. Subsequently, the transport module of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system was modified to incorporate description of pollen transport. The combined model, CMAQ-pollen, allows for simultaneous prediction of multiple air pollutants and pollen levels in a single model simulation, and uses consistent assumptions related to the transport of multiple chemicals and pollen species. Application case studies for evaluating the combined modeling system included the simulation of birch and ragweed pollen levels for the year 2002, during their corresponding peak pollination periods (April for birch and September for ragweed). The model simulations were driven by previously evaluated meteorological model outputs and emissions inventories for the eastern United States for the simulation period. A semi-quantitative evaluation of CMAQ-pollen was performed using tree and ragweed pollen counts in Newark, NJ for the same time periods. The peak birch pollen concentrations were predicted to occur within two days of the peak measurements, while the temporal patterns closely followed the measured profiles of overall tree pollen. For the case of ragweed pollen, the model was able to capture the patterns observed during September 2002, but did not predict an early peak; this can be associated with a wider species pollination window and inadequate spatial information in current land cover databases. An additional sensitivity simulation was performed to comparatively evaluate the dispersion patterns predicted by CMAQ-pollen with those predicted by the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, which is used extensively in aerobiological studies. The CMAQ estimated concentration plumes matched the equivalent pollen scenario modeled with HYSPLIT. The novel pollen modeling approach presented here allows simultaneous estimation of multiple airborne allergens and other air pollutants, and is being developed as a central component of an integrated population exposure modeling system, the Modeling Environment for Total Risk studies (MENTOR) for multiple, co-occurring contaminants that include aeroallergens and irritants. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.