Identifying the effect of unemployment on crime
Identifying the effect of unemployment on crime
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DOI：
10.1086/320275
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发表时间：
2001-04-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Winter-Ebmer, R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Raphael, S;Winter-Ebmer, R
本文分析了失业与犯罪的关系。利用美国各州的数据，我们估计了失业对七种重罪犯罪率的影响。我们广泛控制州一级的人口和经济因素，并估计包括特定于州的时间趋势，州效应和年效应的规格。此外，我们使用主要的国防合同和国家特定的措施暴露于石油冲击作为失业率的工具，我们发现失业对财产犯罪率的显着积极影响，在模型规范中是稳定的。我们的估计显示，九十年代的财产罪案率下降，大部分是由于失业率下降所致。暴力犯罪的证据相当薄弱。然而，对强奸这一暴力犯罪的进一步分析表明，男性的就业前景与各州的强奸率关系不大。
In this paper, we analyze the relationship between unemployment and crime. Using U,S, state data, we estimate the effect of unemployment on the rates of seven felony offenses. We control extensively for state-level demographic and economic factors and estimate specifications that include state-specific time trends, state effects, and year effects. In addition, we use prime defense contracts and a state-specific measure of exposure to oil shocks as instruments for unemployment rates, We find significantly positive effects of unemployment on property crime rates that are stable across model specifications. Our estimates suggest that a substantial portion of the decline in property crime rates during the 1990s is attributable to the decline in the unemployment rate. The evidence for violent crime is considerably weaker. However, a closer analysis of the violent crime of rape yields some evidence that the employment prospects of males are weakly related to state rape rates.