Land use options for staying within the Planetary Boundaries - Synergies and trade-offs between global and local sustainability goals
Land use options for staying within the Planetary Boundaries - Synergies and trade-offs between global and local sustainability goals
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.02.004
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发表时间：
2018-03-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Kreft, Holger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Heck, Vera;Hoff, Holger;Kreft, Holger
在本文中，我们在行星边界框架的指导下开发和评估替代的全球土地利用模式，以量化保持在安全环境操作空间内的土地利用机会。通过基于模拟的多标准土地利用优化程序，我们确定了改善陆地碳储存和生物多样性保护的潜在上限，同时满足土地和水利用的地球边界，并确保改善 90 亿人口的粮食供应。我们提出了替代的全球土地利用方案，可以同时在所有这些目标上产生更好的成果，特别是如果农业生产力得以大幅提高的话。陆地固碳潜力达到98 GtC，而生物多样性风险的潜在减少量为53%。此外，我们分析了这些全球土地利用情景与国家和地方层面的环境和发展目标（例如可持续发展目标中指定的目标）的潜在协同效应和权衡。涉及自然保护、造林、生物能源、就业和公平。这种基于模型的关于不同规模的不同可持续发展目标之间的协同和权衡的信息可用于对转型路径的科学评估、政策制定、支持改善横向和纵向政策一致性和多层次的制度解决方案，以及可持续发展目标的实施、可持续生产和消费（可持续发展目标12）和全球伙伴关系机制（可持续发展目标17）。
In this paper we develop and assess alternative global land use patterns, guided by the Planetary Boundaries framework, to quantify land use opportunities for staying within the safe environmental operating space. Through a simulation based multi-criteria land use optimisation procedure, we determine the potential upper bounds of improved terrestrial carbon storage and of biodiversity conservation, while also meeting the Planetary Boundaries of land and water use and ensuring improved food supply for a population of 9 billion people. We present alternative global land use scenarios that could simultaneously yield better outcomes on all of these goals, in particular if substantial increases in agricultural productivity are realised. Terrestrial carbon sequestration potentials reach 98 GtC, whereas the potential reduction of the risk to biodiversity is 53%. Furthermore, we analyse the potential synergies and trade-offs of these global land use scenarios with national- and local-level environmental and developmental goals such as those specified in the SDGs, e.g. related to nature conservation, afforestation, bioenergy, employment and equity. This model-based information on synergies and trade-offs between different sustainability goals at different scales can be used in scientific assessments of transformation pathways, in policy making, in support of improved horizontal and vertical policy coherence and multi-level institutional solutions, as well as in SDG implementation, sustainable production and consumption (SDG 12) and global partnership mechanisms (SDG 17).