Beyond 'flood hotspots': Modelling emergency service accessibility during flooding in York, UK
Beyond 'flood hotspots': Modelling emergency service accessibility during flooding in York, UK
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.12.013
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发表时间：
2017-03-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Herring, Zara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Coles, Daniel;Yu, Dapeng;Herring, Zara
本文介绍了一种方法，耦合洪水建模与网络分析，以评估在洪水事件的应急响应城市地区的可达性的发展。我们将洪水淹没的数值模拟与救护车服务和消防救援服务的服务区域的地理分析相结合。该方法被证明是两个洪水事件在城市的约克，英国评估的脆弱性护理院和庇护住所。我们确定紧急服务的可行性获得在法定的8分钟和10分钟的目标高优先级，危及生命的事件75%的时间内，在洪水发作。一个水动力洪水淹没模型（FloodMap）模拟了2014年和2015年的洪水事件。预测洪水（深度>25 cm，面积> 100 m（2））覆盖在道路网络上，以确定可能限制通行的地点。洪水期间城市应急响应人员的可访问性进行了量化和映射;（i）在法定时间范围内，从各个应急节点的空间覆盖范围;（ii）在洪水和非洪水条件下，从各个应急服务节点到脆弱的护理院和庇护所的响应时间。结果显示，在2015年的河流洪水中，三个消防和救援服务站中的两个的覆盖面积分别减少了14%和39%，而剩下的一个站需要增加39%的覆盖面积。这相当于模拟洪水和观测洪水分别整体减少6%和20%。在2014年地表水洪水期间，22个护理院中的7个（32%）和43个庇护住宿节点中的15个（35%）模拟了任何救护站的响应时间超过8分钟阈值。总体而言，模拟的地表水洪水比河流洪水事件具有更大的空间足迹。因此，应急服务的可获得性可能会受到不同的影响，这取决于洪水机制。此外，我们预计，在不断变化的气候下，随着脆弱人口的不断增加，紧急服务将面临更大的挑战。在这项研究中开发的方法可以应用到其他城市，以及为应急准备，以支持战略决策，并在实时预测，以指导业务决策的强降雨的提前时间和空间分辨率是足够的基于ECONOMO的评估。(C)2017作者（S）由爱思唯尔公司出版
This paper describes the development of a method that couples flood modelling with network analysis to evaluate the accessibility of city districts by emergency responders during flood events. We integrate numerical modelling of flood inundation with geographical analysis of service areas for the Ambulance Service and the Fire & Rescue Service. The method was demonstrated for two flood events in the City of York, UK to assess the vulnerability of care homes and sheltered accommodation. We determine the feasibility of emergency services gaining access within the statutory 8- and 10-min targets for high priority, life-threatening incidents 75% of the time, during flood episodes. A hydrodynamic flood inundation model (FloodMap) simulates the 2014 pluvial and 2015 fluvial flood events. Predicted floods (with depth >25 cm and areas >100m(2)) were overlain on the road network to identify sites with potentially restricted access. Accessibility of the city to emergency responders during flooding was quantified and mapped using; (i) spatial coverage from individual emergency nodes within the legislated timeframes, and; (ii) response times from individual emergency service nodes to vulnerable care homes and sheltered accommodation under flood and non-flood conditions. Results show that, during the 2015 fluvial flood, the area covered by two of the three Fire & Rescue Service stations reduced by 14% and 39% respectively, while the remaining station needed to increase its coverage by 39%. This amounts to an overall reduction of 6% and 20% for modelled and observed floods respectively. During the 2014 surface water flood, 7 out of 22 care homes (32%) and 15 out of 43 sheltered accommodation nodes (35%) had modelled response times above the 8-min threshold from any Ambulance station. Overall, modelled surface water flooding has a larger spatial footprint than fluvial flood events. Hence, accessibility of emergency services may be impacted differently depending on flood mechanism. Moreover, we expect emergency services to face greater challenges under a changing climate with a growing, more vulnerable population. The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other cities, as well as for scenario-based evaluation of emergency preparedness to support strategic decision making, and in real-time forecasting to guide operational decisions where heavy rainfall lead-time and spatial resolution are sufficient. (C) 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.