Extending the forecast range of the UK storm surge ensemble

Extending the forecast range of the UK storm surge ensemble
复制标题

扩大英国风暴潮集合的预报范围

DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
H. Titley
H. Titley
中科院分区：
--
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Flowerdew;K. Mylne;Caroline Jones;H. Titley

文献摘要

被引文献

相似文献

沿海风暴潮造成的洪水对生命和财产构成重大威胁。英国长期以来一直有一个基于单一“确定性”模拟的风暴潮预报系统。2009年12月，又增加了一个风暴潮业务集合。通过对预测不确定性进行多个模拟采样，集合估计达到临界水位的概率，从而支持更加基于风险的民防方法。
Flooding due to coastal storm surges presents a significant threat to life and property. The UK has long had a storm surge forecasting system based on a single ‘deterministic’ simulation. This was augmented with an operational storm surge ensemble in December 2009. By producing several simulations sampling the forecast uncertainty, the ensemble estimates the probability of reaching critical water levels and thus supports a more risk‐based approach to civil protection.