Additive effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas and larval supply to fished areas
Additive effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas and larval supply to fished areas
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DOI：
10.1111/ddi.12250
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发表时间：
2015-02-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Manel, Stephanie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Andrello, Marco;Mouillot, David;Manel, Stephanie
目的研究气候变化对海洋保护区(MPA)和大陆架幼虫供应之间连通性的综合影响。地中海预计到21世纪末海洋表面温度将大幅上升，呈现出典型的情况，即密集的MPA网，但外部资源过度开发。方法利用基于个体的幼虫运输机制模型，结合地中海排放驱动的区域气候变化情景，我们探讨了水动力、成虫繁殖时机和幼虫扩散的变化对MPA之间的连通性和它们繁殖幼虫的能力的综合影响。结果表明，1970-2099年间，幼虫扩散距离减少10%，幼虫播种大陆架面积减少3%，幼虫滞留率增加5%，导致幼虫在较小的大陆架区域集中。然而，随着温度的升高，更多的北部海洋保护区将变得适合繁殖，因此，MPA网络内的连接性将增加5%。研究还表明，成虫繁殖时机和幼虫扩散的变化对连通性格局的影响是相加的。主要结论气候变化将影响连通性和MPA网络的有效性，在未来的保护规划和大规模种群动态中应受到更多关注。
AimTo study the combined effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas (MPAs) and larval supply to the continental shelf.LocationThe Mediterranean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are expected to strongly increase by the end of the 21st century, represents an archetypal situation with a dense MPA network but resource overexploitation outside.MethodsUsing an individual-based mechanistic model of larval transport, forced with an emission-driven regional climate change scenario for the Mediterranean Sea, we explored the combined effects of changes in hydrodynamics, adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on the connectivity among MPAs and their ability to seed fished areas with larvae.ResultsWe show that, over the period 1970-2099, larval dispersal distances would decrease by 10%, the continental shelf area seeded with larvae would decrease by 3% and the larval retention fraction would increase by 5%, resulting in higher concentration of larvae in smaller areas of the continental shelf. However, connectance within the MPA network would increase by 5% as more northern MPAs would become suitable for reproduction with increasing temperatures. We also show that the effects of changes in adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on connectivity patterns are additive.Main conclusionsClimate change will influence connectivity and the effectiveness of MPA networks, and should receive more attention in future conservation planning and large-scale population dynamics.