Downscaling of climate model output for Alaskan stakeholders
Downscaling of climate model output for Alaskan stakeholders
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.03.021
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发表时间：
2018-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Walsh;U. Bhatt;Jeremy S. Littell;M. Leonawicz;M. Lindgren;T. Kurkowski;P. Bieniek;R. Thoman;S. Gray;T. Scott Rupp
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文献类型：
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作者：
J. Walsh;U. Bhatt;Jeremy S. Littell;M. Leonawicz;M. Lindgren;T. Kurkowski;P. Bieniek;R. Thoman;S. Gray;T. Scott Rupp
本文总结了连接全球气候模拟企业与阿拉斯加气候信息用户的端到端活动。这项工作包括检索必要的观测数据集和模型输出，模型评估和选择程序，通过delta方法及其固有的偏差调整进行实际的降尺度，以及通过可视化软件向一系列用户提供产品，使用户能够探索降尺度输出及其灵敏度。另外一个软件工具使用户可以检查阿拉斯加和北半球其他六个地区的21个全球模型的技能指标和相对排名。在三种不同的温室效应情景下，到2100年，阿拉斯加和加拿大西部的4000多个社区的温度和降水以日历月年代际平均值的方式缩小了尺度。可视化包显示了多模式集合预测中固有的不确定性。这些不确定性往往大于预估的变化。
The paper summarizes an end-to-end activity connecting the global climate modeling enterprise with users of climate information in Alaska. The effort included retrieval of the requisite observational datasets and model output, a model evaluation and selection procedure, the actual downscaling by the delta method with its inherent bias-adjustment, and the provision of products to a range of users through visualization software that empowers users to explore the downscaled output and its sensitivities. An additional software tool enables users to examine skill metrics and relative rankings of 21 global models for Alaska and six other domains in the Northern Hemisphere. The downscaled temperatures and precipitation are made available as calendar-month decadal means under three different greenhouse forcing scenarios through 2100 for more than 4000 communities in Alaska and western Canada. The visualization package displays the uncertainties inherent in the multi-model ensemble projections. These uncertainties are often larger than the projected changes.