Hard or soft flood adaptation? Advantages of a hybrid strategy for Shanghai
Hard or soft flood adaptation? Advantages of a hybrid strategy for Shanghai
复制标题
洪水适应是硬适应还是软适应？
DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102037
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发表时间：
2020-03-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Du, Shiqiang;Scussolini, Paolo;Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
预计沿海城市的洪水风险将增加，特别是在上海等亚洲特大城市。本文提出了一个集成的建模框架，模拟在上海的洪水风险的变化，并提供了成本效益分析的多种适应策略，以减少风险。结果表明，随着海平面上升、地面沉降和社会经济的发展，潜在的洪水风险将急剧增加。到2100年，在一个乐观的排放情景（RCP 4.5）下，预计每年的损失可能达到当地GDP的0.8%（不确定性范围：0.4%-1.4%），而目前的值为0.03%。在当前条件下和2050年条件下，所有的适应策略都能有效地降低洪水风险。与“硬”防洪策略（即，风暴潮屏障和防洪墙），“软”战略（即，建筑规范和基于自然的措施）无法大幅降低2100年的洪水风险。然而，软战略可以在降低硬战略带来的剩余风险方面发挥关键作用。一个“混合”战略相结合的风暴潮屏障，防潮，沿海湿地的发展优于硬和软战略的低剩余风险和高效益/成本比。此外，混合战略还可以更大程度地减少伤亡。这些研究结果意味着，管理洪水风险不仅仅是使用单一的适应措施。本文的研究方法可为上海等沿海城市在未来不确定的环境中制定经济和社会上可行的适应策略提供借鉴。
Flood risk is expected to increase in coastal cities, particularly in Asian megacities such as Shanghai. This paper presents an integrated modeling framework to simulate changes in the flood risk in Shanghai and provide a cost-benefit analysis of multiple adaptation strategies used to reduce risk. The results show that the potential flood risk will increase dramatically as a result of sea level rise, land subsidence, and socioeconomic development. By 2100, the expected annual damage could reach 0.8% (uncertainty range: 0.4%-1.4%) of local GDP under an optimistic emission scenario (RCP4.5), compared to the current value of 0.03%. All of the adaptation strategies can effectively reduce the flood risk under the current conditions and those in 2050. In contrast to the 'hard' flood protection strategies (i.e., storm-surge barriers and floodwalls), the 'soft' strategies (i.e., building codes and nature-based measures) cannot substantially reduce the flood risk in 2100. However, the soft strategies can play a critical role in reducing the residual risk resulting from the hard strategies. A 'hybrid' strategy combining a storm-surge barrier, wet-proofing, and coastal wetland development outperforms both hard and soft strategies in terms of low residual risk and high benefit/cost ratio. Additionally, the hybrid strategy can also enable a larger reduction in casualties. These findings imply that managing flood risk is more than the use of single adaptation measures. The methodology developed in this paper can enlighten Shanghai and other coastal cities on an economically and socially feasible adaptation strategy in an uncertain future.