Glacier and runoff changes in the Rukhk catchment, upper Amu-Darya basin until 2050
Glacier and runoff changes in the Rukhk catchment, upper Amu-Darya basin until 2050
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.05.005
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发表时间：
2013-11-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Klose, Zbynek
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hagg, Wilfried;Hoelzle, Martin;Klose, Zbynek
在阿姆河主要支流潘吉上游流域建立了概念水文模型。经过涉及不同限制的模型运行的手动校准程序后，该模型以非常令人满意的方式再现了 Rukhk 测量站的塔尼马斯河每日水文过程线 (NSE = 0.86) 和 Irkht 站的雪水当量 (R-2 = 0.85)。根据 20 世纪中叶（WGI，世界冰川清单）和 2003 年（GLIMS，太空全球陆地冰测量）的两次冰川清查，采用基于稳态条件的简单参数化方案来推断这些不同时间段的冰量和冰川面积。假设气温上升 2.2 摄氏度和 3.1 摄氏度，这标志着区域气候情景的极值，则使用相同的方法将冰川化外推到 2050 年。结果表明，这些气温上升将使目前 431 km(2) 的冰川范围分别减少 36% 和 45%。为了评估未来可用水量的变化，根据区域气候情景和结果修改了水文模型输入。冰川变化。与以前使用的方法相比，使用高程分布的冰川消融模式是一个明显的改进，以前使用的方法通过排除下半部分或总冰川面积来测试对径流的影响。径流情景显示年径流仅略有减少，因为冰川面积的减少几乎被融化速率的增加所抵消。然而，水资源从夏季到春季存在重要的季节性变化，对低地的农业和灌溉产生不利影响。 (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
A conceptual hydrological model was set up in the upper Panj catchment, the main tributary of Amu-Darya river. After a manual calibration procedure involving model runs with different restrictions, the model reproduced both daily hydrographs of Tanimas river at the Rukhk gauging station (NSE = 0.86) and the snow water equivalent of the Irkht station (R-2 = 0.85) in a very satisfactory way. Based on two glacier inventories from the mid-20th century (WGI, World Glacier Inventory) and from 2003 (GLIMS, Global Land Ice Measurements from Space), a simple parameterization scheme based on steady state conditions was applied to infer the ice volumes and glacier areas for these different time periods. Assuming temperature rises of 2.2 degrees C and 3.1 degrees C, which mark the extreme values of regional climate scenarios, the same method was used to extrapolate glacierization to the year 2050. The results show that these temperature rises will reduce the current glacier extent of 431 km(2) by 36% and 45%, respectively.To assess future changes in water availability, the hydrological model input was modified according to the regional climate scenarios and the resulting glacier changes. The use of an elevation distributed deglacierization pattern is a clear improvement over methods used previously, where the impact on runoff was tested by excluding either the lower half or the total glacier area. The runoff scenarios reveal only a slight reduction in annual runoff, because the glacier area decrease is almost balanced out by enhanced melt rates. However, there is an important seasonal shift of water resources from summer to spring, unfavorably affecting agriculture and irrigation in the lowlands. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.