Climate and mortality in Australia: retrospective study, 1979-1990, and predicted impacts in five major cities in 2030
Climate and mortality in Australia: retrospective study, 1979-1990, and predicted impacts in five major cities in 2030
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DOI：
10.3354/cr013001
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发表时间：
1999-09-07
期刊：
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
McMichael, AJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guest, CS;Willson, K;McMichael, AJ
气候和环境健康风险的定量评估是必要的，因为气候变化是预期的。因此，我们的目标是量化1979-1990年期间澳大利亚5个最大城市的极端气候与死亡率之间的关系。然后，我们将确定的近期气候条件与死亡率之间的关系应用于气候和人口变化的情景，以预测2030年对城市公共卫生的潜在影响。获得了死亡率、分母种群和气候的数据。计算了每个城市每天的预期死亡人数。根据温度阈值，将观察到的每日死亡人数与预期死亡率进行比较。死亡率也与气候的时间天气指数(TSI)相关联，通过主成分和聚类分析得出。根据观察-预期阈值分析，对于这5个城市来说，1979-1990年间，在28摄氏度的阈值下，可归因于气温的年平均死亡人数超过175人。这5个城市在统计上的显著差异之和，是与所考虑的温度范围内的任何阈值相关的最大超标。夏季最热的日子的额外死亡率高于冬天最冷的日子。温度与死亡率的关系略受社会经济地位的影响。TSI分析产生了类似的结果：使用这种方法，这5个城市的气候可归因性死亡率约为每年160人，尽管这个数字在夏季和冬季均匀分布。年龄在65岁及以上的人群是最脆弱的。在考虑到人口的增长，并结合所有年龄段后，天气学方法显示2030年死亡率下降了10%。我们的结论是，澳大利亚最大的5个城市在夏季和冬季都表现出气候可归因性死亡。考虑到未来30年区域变暖的情景，澳大利亚这些主要沿海城市由于直接气候影响而预期的死亡率变化很小。
Quantitative assessment of climatic and environmental health risks is necessary because changes in climate are expected. We therefore aimed to quantify the relationship between climatic extremes and mortality in the 5 largest Australian cities during the period 1979-1990. We then applied the relationship determined between recent climatic conditions and mortality to scenarios for climate and demographic change, to predict potential impacts on public health in the cities in the year 2030. Data on mortality, denominator population and climate were obtained. The expected numbers of deaths per day in each city were calculated. Observed daily deaths were compared with expected rates according to temperature thresholds. Mortality was also examined in association with temporal synoptic indices (TSI) of climate, developed by principal component and cluster analysis. According to observed-expected threshold analyses, for the 5 cities combined, the annual mean excess of deaths attributable to temperature over the period 1979-1990 was 175 for the 28 degrees threshold. This sum of statistically significant differences from the 5 cities was the greatest excess found in association with any threshold considered in the range of temperatures that occur. Excess mortality for the hottest days in summer was greater than for the coldest days in winter. Temperature-mortality relationships were tittle modified by socio-economic status. TSI analyses produced similar results: using this method, the climate-attributable mortality in the 5 cities was approximately 160 deaths yr(-1), although this number was evenly distributed across summer and winter. Persons in the group aged 65 yr and older were the most vulnerable. After allowing for increases in population, and combining all age groups, the synoptic method showed a 10% reduction in mortality in the year 2030. We conclude that the 5 largest Australian cities exhibit climate-attributable mortality in both summer and winter. Given the scenarios of regional warming during the next 3 decades, the expected changes in mortality due to direct climatic effects in these major coastal Australian cities are minor.