Reduced carbon emissions and fishing pressure are both necessary for equatorial coral reefs to keep up with rising seas
Reduced carbon emissions and fishing pressure are both necessary for equatorial coral reefs to keep up with rising seas
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DOI：
10.1111/ecog.04949
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发表时间：
2020-03-19
期刊：
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
van Woesik, Robert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cacciapaglia, Christopher William;van Woesik, Robert
海平面上升的迅速增加正在现代珊瑚礁上产生垂直的容纳空间。然而，海洋表面温度的上升正在降低珊瑚礁跟上海平面上升的能力。我们使用四种珊瑚（Porites rus, Porites lobata， Acropora hyacinthus和Acropora digitalfera）的集合物种分布模型来衡量总碳酸盐产量的潜在地理差异。净碳酸盐产量是通过考虑到到2100年的海洋酸化侵蚀率、气旋强度增加、局部污染、捕捞压力和预估的SSTs增加负担（在代表性浓度路径（rcp） 4.5、6.0和8.5下）来估算的。我们的模型预测，到2100年，在RCP 8.5下，预计只有4 +/- 0.1%（相当于6万公里）的印度洋-太平洋珊瑚礁能够跟上海平面上升的速度，其中大部分将位于赤道附近。然而，随着排放量的大幅减少（在RCP 4.5和6.0 Wm（-2）下），我们预测到2100年，印度-太平洋珊瑚礁的15 +/- 0.3%（类似于25万公里(2)）（在RCP 4.5 Wm（-2）下）和12 +/- 0.7%（类似于20万公里(2)）（在RCP 6.0 Wm（-2）下）有可能跟上海平面上升的速度。然而，捕捞压力的负担及其连锁效应预计将导致大量珊瑚礁侵蚀，使能够跟上海平面上升速度的珊瑚礁数量减少近一半。如果立即采取行动，排放量大幅减少到rcp 4.5或6.0 Wm(-2)，并且珊瑚礁管理减少了当地污染的负担和捕捞压力，那么我们的模型预测，到2100年，21-27%（类似于35万-47万公里(2)）的印度洋-太平洋珊瑚礁-其中大部分将位于赤道附近-将有可能跟上海平面上升的速度。
A rapid increase in sea-level rise is generating vertical accommodation space on modern coral reefs. Yet increases in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are reducing the capacity of coral reefs to keep up with sea-level rise. We use ensemble species distribution models of four coral species (Porites rus, Porites lobata, Acropora hyacinthus and Acropora digitifera) to gauge potential geographic differences in gross carbonate production. Net carbonate production was estimated by considering erosional rates of ocean acidification, increasing cyclone intensity, local pollution, fishing pressure and the projected burdens of increases in SSTs (under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) through to the year 2100. Our models predict that only 4 +/- 0.1% (similar to 60 000 km(2)) of Indo-Pacific coral reefs are projected to keep up with sea-level rise by the year 2100 under RCP 8.5 - most of which will be located near the Equator. However, with drastic reductions in emissions (under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 Wm(-2)), we predict that 15 +/- 0.3% (similar to 250 000 km(2)) (under RCP 4.5 Wm(-2)) and 12 +/- 0.7% (similar to 200 000 km(2)) (under RCP 6.0 Wm(-2)) of Indo-Pacific coral reefs, have the potential to keep up with sea-level rise by the year 2100. Yet the burdens of fishing pressure and its cascading effects are projected to be responsible for substantial reef erosion, nearly halving the number of reefs able to keep up with sea-level rise. If action is taken immediately and emissions are drastically reduced to RCPs 4.5 or 6.0 Wm(-2), and reef management reduces the burdens of local pollution and fishing pressure, then our model predicts that 21-27% (similar to 350 000-470 000 km(2)) of Indo-Pacific coral reefs - most of which will be located near the Equator - would have the potential to keep up with sea-level rise by the year 2100.