A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia
A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia
复制标题
DOI：
10.5194/nhess-14-3105-2014
复制
发表时间：
2014-01-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Thio, H. K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Horspool, N.;Pranantyo, I.;Thio, H. K.
概率危害评估是评估危害对社区造成的威胁的基本工具，对于支持有关风险缓解活动的循证决策非常重要。 2004 年印度洋海啸之后，印度尼西亚一直是海啸风险缓解工作的重点，但这主要集中在巽他弧，很少关注该国其他海啸易发地区，例如印度尼西亚东部。我们为印度尼西亚提供了第一个全国一致的概率海啸灾害评估 (PTHA)。该评估利用当地、区域和遥远地震源产生的海啸数据，对海岸海啸灾害进行与时间无关的预测。该方法基于已建立的概率地震灾害评估（PSHA）蒙特卡罗方法，并已针对海啸进行了调整。我们通过使用逻辑树和采样概率密度函数来解释分析中认知和偶然不确定性的来源。对于短重现期（100 年）而言，海啸危害最高的是苏门答腊岛西海岸、爪哇岛南海岸和巴布亚北海岸。对于较长的重现期（500-2500 年），巽他弧沿线的海啸危害最高，反映了较大的最大震级。苏门答腊岛、爪哇岛、巽他群岛（巴厘岛、龙目岛、弗洛勒斯岛、松巴岛）和巴布亚北部每年在海岸遭遇高度 > 0.5 m 海啸的概率大于 10%。苏门答腊岛、爪哇岛、巴厘岛、龙目岛和北巴布亚每年发生高度 > 3.0 m 海啸的概率为 1-10%，而北苏拉威西岛、塞拉姆和弗洛勒斯岛则为 0.1-1%，这将导致严重的淹没和死亡。全国范围的灾害评估结果为灾害管理者提供了证据，以优先考虑区域进行风险缓解活动和/或更详细的灾害或风险评估。
Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.