Global and regional trends in COPD mortality, 1990-2010.
Global and regional trends in COPD mortality, 1990-2010.
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DOI：
10.1183/09031936.00142414
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发表时间：
2015-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Naghavi M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Burney PG;Patel J;Newson R;Minelli C;Naghavi M
1990年至2010年间，慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）从世界第四位上升到第三位。利用全球疾病负担项目的数据，我们量化了1990年至2010年间COPD死亡人数和COPD死亡率的区域变化。我们估计了人均国民总收入（GNI）和累积吸烟暴露指数的变化比例，并量化了人口变化导致的死亡率差异。尽管COPD死亡率大幅下降，但由于人口的平均年龄增加，COPD死亡人数仅略有下降，从1990年的300万下降到2010年的280万。如果年龄-性别特定死亡率保持不变，2010年COPD死亡人数将上升至520万。吸烟的变化仅导致按年龄-性别分列的死亡率小幅上升，而这与国民总收入的变化密切相关。COPD死亡率的增加主要是由年龄分布的变化引起的，但随着收入的增加，年龄性别特异性比率下降。对日益富裕的快速反应表明，COPD死亡率的变化不能完全由早期生活的变化来解释。
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) moved from fourth to third commonest cause of death in the world between 1990 and 2010. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease programme we quantified regional changes in number of COPD deaths and COPD mortality rates between 1990 and 2010. We estimated the proportion of the change attributable to gross national income (GNI)/capita and an index of cumulative smoking exposure, and quantified the difference in mortality rates attributable to demographic changes. Despite a substantial decrease in COPD mortality rates COPD deaths fell only slightly, from 3 million in 1990 to 2.8 million in 2010 because the mean age of the population increased. The number of COPD deaths in 2010 would have risen to 5.2 million if the age-sex specific mortality rates had remained constant. Changes in smoking led to only a small increase in age-sex specific mortality rates, which were strongly associated with changes in GNI. The increased burden of COPD mortality was mainly driven by changes in age distribution, but age-sex specific rates fell as incomes rose. The rapid response to increasing affluence suggests that changes in COPD mortality are not explained entirely by changes in early life.