Spatial Aspects of the American Fertility Transition in the Nineteenth Century
Spatial Aspects of the American Fertility Transition in the Nineteenth Century
复制标题
十九世纪美国生育率转变的空间方面
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Haines
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Haines
与其他目前发达国家的历史性转变相比，美国的生育率转变是不寻常的。这一下降发生得非常早，大约从1800年开始，1800年白人的生育率非常高，粗略的出生率为55，总生育率约为7.0。此外，生育率的转变早在死亡率持续下降之前就开始了，大约可以追溯到19世纪70年代。最后，转型发生在一个以农业和农村为主的国家，尽管农村和城市的出生率都有所下降。使用一个新的数据库，用其他人口、农业和制造业数据补充基本人口普查措施，可以在1800至1860年的县级档案中计算特定年龄的儿童与妇女的比率。本章考察了白人儿童与妇女比率的地理分布模式，估计了结构性空间回归模型，并评估了空间自相关性和聚集性。空间自相关对经度(东西方向)差异显著，但对纬度(南北方向)差异不显著。低生育率县集中在1800个和1810个县，而高生育率县更多地集中在一起。最后，与过渡地区相比，长期定居和新定居的县的生育率在空间上的模式较少。
The American fertility transition is unusual in comparison with historical transitions in other currently developed nations. The decline came very early, dating from about 1800 and took place from very high levels of fertility, a crude birth rate of 55 and a total fertility rate of about 7.0 for the white population in 1800. Further, the fertility transition began long before the sustained decline in mortality, dating from approximately the 1870s. Finally, the transition occurred in a predominantly agrarian and rural nation, although birth rates declined in both rural and urban places. Using a new database that supplements basic population census measures with other demographic, agricultural and manufacturing data, age-specific child-woman ratios can be calculated at the county level files for 1800 to 1860. This chapter examines patterns of geographic dispersion of white child-woman ratios, estimates structural spatial regression models and assesses spatial autocorrelation and clustering. Spatial autocorrelation was significant for variation by longitude (east-west) but not latitude (north-south). Low fertility counties were clustered in 1,800 and 1,810, while high fertility counties were more often found together later. Finally, fertility was less spatially patterned in longer settled and newly settled counties than in transitional areas.