Methodology of Homogeneous and Non-Homogeneous Markov Chains for Modelling Bridge Element Deterioration
Methodology of Homogeneous and Non-Homogeneous Markov Chains for Modelling Bridge Element Deterioration
复制标题
用于桥梁元件劣化建模的齐次和非齐次马尔可夫链方法
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Devaraj
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Fu;D. Devaraj
在美国和许多其他国家，桥梁管理是运输机构的一项重要活动。桥梁管理的一个关键方面是可靠地预测桥梁结构的劣化，以便选择适当或最佳的行动来减少或最小化劣化率，并最大限度地提高更换或维护，修理和修复（MR&R）的支出效果。在美国，Pontis是各州交通机构中最常用的桥梁管理系统。其退化模型采用马尔可夫链，用统计回归估计所需的转移概率。这是Pontis恶化预测的核心部分。本报告重点介绍了Pontis中使用的马尔可夫链模型，该模型对Pontis软件的理解和实现至关重要。重点讨论了庞蒂斯方法的局限性，并建立了一种新的转移概率估计方法。这是因为预测恶化是MR&R决策的基础。
Bridge management is an important activity of transportation agencies in the US and in many other countries. A critical aspect of bridge management is to reliably predict the deterioration of bridge structures, so that appropriate or optimal actions can be selected to reduce or minimize the deterioration rate and maximize the effect of spending for replacement or maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation (MR&R). In the US, Pontis is the most popular bridge management system used among the state transportation agencies. Its deterioration model uses the Markov Chain, with a statistical regression to estimate the required transition probabilities. This is the core part of deterioration prediction in Pontis. This report focuses on the Markov Chain model used in Pontis, which is vital to the understanding and implementation of the Pontis software. Emphasis has been made on the limitations of Pontis methodology, and establishing a new method for transition probability estimation. This is because predicting deterioration is the basis for decision-making with respect to MR&R.