The relative validity of actuarial- and consensus-based risk assessment systems
The relative validity of actuarial- and consensus-based risk assessment systems
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DOI：
10.1016/s0190-7409(00)00122-5
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发表时间：
2000-11-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Wagner, D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baird, C;Wagner, D
为了改善儿童保护服务（CPS）的决策，在过去的二十年里，大多数州都实施了风险评估系统，以指导工作人员在有限的时间内做出关键决策。一般来说，这些系统的特点是基于共识或精算模型。这项研究是第一次直接比较这两种方法的相对有效性。三个风险评估工具，两个共识为基础的，一个精算，完成了对队列的情况下，从四个不同的司法管辖区和结果的信息收集超过一个月的随访期。随后的调查，证实，和安置率计算在每个模型中的低，中，高风险水平分类的情况下。结果清楚地表明，精算方法更准确地将案件分类到不同的风险水平。这些精算模型，因此，有最大的潜力，以改善CPS的决策和更好地保护美国的风险儿童。
in an effort to improve decision-making in child protective services (CPS), most states have, over the last two decades, implemented risk assessment systems to guide staff fared with making critical decisions in limited time frames. Generally, these systems are characterized as consensus-based or actuarial models. This study is the first to directly compare the relative validity of these two approaches. Three risk assessment instruments, two consensus-based and one actuarial, were completed on cohorts of cases from four different jurisdictions and outcome information was collected over an Is-month follow-up period. Rates of subsequent investigations, substantiations, and placements were computed for cases classified at low, moderate, and high risk levels in each model. Results clearly demonstrate that the actuarial approach more accurately classifies cases to different risk levels. These actuarial models, therefore, have the greatest potential to improve CPS decision making and better protect America's at risk children.