Sea level rise, coastal development and planned retreat: analytical framework, governance principles and an Australian case study
Sea level rise, coastal development and planned retreat: analytical framework, governance principles and an Australian case study
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsci.2010.12.002
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发表时间：
2011-05-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Heyenga, Sonja
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Abel, Nick;Gorddard, Russell;Heyenga, Sonja
沿海开发正在沿着世界的海岸扩展。海平面正在上升，因此预计未来将出现重大资产损失。有计划地从海洋撤退到自然生态屏障后面是一种适应办法。为了保持这种平衡，可以留出土地供沿海生态系统殖民，或者在海平面达到离建筑物特定距离时拆除建筑物。高收入国家沿海问题的相似性促使我们提出一个可推广的分析框架，以探索有计划的撤退。我们将其应用于澳大利亚东南部的昆士兰州，在那里，有计划的撤退的选择正在消失，因为（1）州政府促进人口增长;（2）为自然保护的沿海生态系统提供地方的需要似乎并不紧迫，所以在那里建造房屋;（3）责任法有利于发展;（4）规划忽视了累积影响、发展的路径依赖性和不可逆转的社会-生态阈值变化;（5）随着已建资产价值的增加，建造防御工事的政治压力也在增加。为了实施计划中的撤退，需要改变沿海治理，为此，我们提出了五项指导原则：（a）根据各级治理的有效性在各级治理之间分配权力和资源;（B）加强发展规则和激励措施，在接近不必要的门槛时重新安置;（c）允许不确定性，使规则和激励措施能够在情况变化时改变;（d）将公共和私人利益、成本、风险、不确定性和责任从政府重新分配给发展的受益者;（e）将灾难制度化为变革的机会，而不是重建的信号。根据这项研究，我们接下来的优先事项之一是社会变革的心理学，不确定性，权利，义务，激励和信任。二是扩大和深化对开发商、中介、保险商、购房者、卖房者和业主对开发规则和激励措施变化的反应的理解。皇冠版权所有（c）2010由爱思唯尔有限公司出版。保留所有权利。
Coastal development is spreading along the World's coasts. Sea levels are rising, so major future asset losses are expected. Planned retreat from the sea behind natural ecological defences is one adaptation option. To maintain it, land could he set aside for colonisation by coastal ecosystems, or buildings constructed on condition they are removed when sea level reaches a specified distance from the building.Similarities among coastal issues in high-income countries encouraged us to produce a generalisable analytical framework for exploring planned retreat. We applied it to South East Queensland, Australia, where the option of planned retreat is disappearing because (1) State Government promotes population increase; (2) the need to provide places for naturally protective coastal ecosystems to occupy does not seem urgent, so houses are built there; (3) liability laws favour development; (4) planning ignores cumulative impacts, the path dependent nature of development and irreversible social-ecological threshold changes; (5) political pressure to build defences grows as the value of built assets increases.To implement planned retreat, changes to coastal governance would be needed, for which we propose five guiding principles: (a) allocate authority and resources between levels of governance according to their effectiveness at each level (b) strengthen development rules and incentives to relocate as an unwanted threshold is approached; (c) allow for uncertainties by enabling rules and incentives to be changed when circumstances change; (d) reassign public and private benefits, costs, risks, uncertainties and responsibilities from governments to beneficiaries of development; (e) institutionalise catastrophes as opportunities for change, not signals to rebuild.Following from this research, one of our next the priorities is the psychology of social change, uncertainty, rights, obligations, incentives and trust. The other is to extend and deepen understanding of the responses of developers, barkers, insurers, house buyers, sellers and owners to changes in development rules and incentives. Crown Copyright (c) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.