Contrasting Responses of Hailstorms to Anthropogenic Climate Change in Different Synoptic Weather Systems
Contrasting Responses of Hailstorms to Anthropogenic Climate Change in Different Synoptic Weather Systems
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DOI：
10.1029/2022ef002768
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发表时间：
2022-07
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通讯作者：
Jiwen Fan;Yuwei Zhang;Jingyu Wang;Jong‐Hoon Jeong;Xiaodong Chen;Shixuan Zhang;Yun Lin;Zhe Feng;R. Adams-Selin
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作者：
Jiwen Fan;Yuwei Zhang;Jingyu Wang;Jong‐Hoon Jeong;Xiaodong Chen;Shixuan Zhang;Yun Lin;Zhe Feng;R. Adams-Selin
冰雹和极端降水在美国（US）和地球仪上造成巨大的经济损失。它们与短暂的强对流风暴的强烈联系对预测其未来变化构成了巨大挑战。在这里，我们以1.2 km的网格间距对美国中部春季两种典型天气尺度环境中发生的大冰雹和强降水的强对流风暴进行了模式模拟。结果表明，在两种天气尺度环境下，大冰雹（直径>2.5 cm）对人为气候变化的响应存在明显差异，锋面系统的大冰雹增加超过110%，而大平原低空急流（GPLLJ）系统的大冰雹增加不到30%。这是由于锋面风暴的对流强度和上升气流宽度增加较大，而暖云深度增加较小。有趣的是，在这两种类型的系统中，强降水（降雨率>20 mm hr−1）的发生和强度对ACC同样敏感（例如，额叶和GPLLJ系统的发生率分别增加40%和33%）。这些结果推进了我们对冰雹预测的认识，并对未来冰雹的风险管理具有重要意义。
Hailstones and extreme precipitation generate substantial economic losses across the United States (US) and the globe. Their strong association with short‐lived, intense convective storms poses a great challenge in predicting their future changes. Here, we conducted model simulations at 1.2 km grid spacing for severe convective storms with large hail and heavy precipitation that occurred in two typical types of synoptic‐scale environments in spring seasons over the central US under both current and future climate conditions. We find that the responses of large hail (diameters >2.5 cm) to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) are markedly different between the hailstorms developed in the two types of synoptic‐scale environments, with over 110% increase in large hail occurrences for the frontal systems, whereas less than 30% increase for the Great Plains low‐level jet (GPLLJ) systems. This is explained by the larger increase in convective intensity and updraft width and a smaller increase in warm cloud depth in the frontal storms compared with the GPLLJ storms. Interestingly, the occurrences and intensity of heavy precipitation (rain rate >20 mm hr−1) in both types of systems are similarly sensitive to ACC (e.g., 40% and 33% increases in the occurrences for the frontal and GPLLJ systems, respectively). These results advance our knowledge of hail projection and have important implications for managing risks for future hail.