Modelling Optimal Control of Cholera in Communities Linked by Migration
Modelling Optimal Control of Cholera in Communities Linked by Migration
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DOI：
10.1155/2015/898264
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Nyabadza, F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Njagarah, J. B. H.;Nyabadza, F.
建立和分析了霍乱传播动力学的数学模型，其中允许在两个相连的社区之间进行控制。相邻社区的疾病动态被认为是相似的，主要的差异只反映在传播和疾病相关参数上。这一假设是基于这样一个事实，即相邻社区往往有不同的居住条件，运动倾向于生活条件较好的社区。假设易感人群、感染者和恢复者在社区之间流动，则给出社区特定的繁殖数字。我们使用拉丁超立方体抽样方案对模型参数进行敏感性分析，以确定参数和控制措施对感染进展的影响程度。利用最优控制理论中的原理，确定了控制措施的分布与感染严重程度之间的时间关系。我们的结果表明，在两个受影响的社区实施适当的卫生、卫生和疫苗接种等控制措施，很可能在自我限制所需时间的一半内消灭感染。此外，尽管感染仍可能在有控制措施的情况下爆发，但与没有控制措施的情况相比，其破坏性可能要小8倍。
A mathematical model for the dynamics of cholera transmission with permissible controls between two connected communities is developed and analysed. The dynamics of the disease in the adjacent communities are assumed to be similar, with the main differences only reflected in the transmission and disease related parameters. This assumption is based on the fact that adjacent communities often have different living conditions and movement is inclined toward the community with better living conditions. Community specific reproduction numbers are given assuming movement of those susceptible, infected, and recovered, between communities. We carry out sensitivity analysis of the model parameters using the Latin Hypercube Sampling scheme to ascertain the degree of effect the parameters and controls have on progression of the infection. Using principles from optimal control theory, a temporal relationship between the distribution of controls and severity of the infection is ascertained. Our results indicate that implementation of controls such as proper hygiene, sanitation, and vaccination across both affected communities is likely to annihilate the infection within half the time it would take through self-limitation. In addition, although an infection may still break out in the presence of controls, it may be up to 8 times less devastating when compared with the case when no controls are in place.