Interrogation theory
Interrogation theory
复制标题
审讯理论
DOI：
--
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
A. Curtis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Arnold;A. Curtis
投资的目标是科学或其他方面的答案，以解决有关自然状态的特定问题：地震速度结构是什么？包含感兴趣的资源吗？解决问题是为了回答所有先验信息的问题，并考虑了新数据，这些理论通常是在宇宙的特定模型的背景下设置的。在该参数下的所有可能结果中，调查人员可能无法做到这一点。 ，并提供一个将问题与任何特定参数空间联系起来的功能。相关模型和参数空间，设计，获取和分析数据，以便在必要时最好地回答问题。研究者的结果和灵感。我们在本文中提出了审讯理论。然后，仅在要考虑的每个模型的一般问题上指定一个实用程序。问题：模型娱乐，公用事业，甚至是各种示例。地下储层，蒙特卡洛取样以估算地球物理模型的贝叶斯证据，区分实验室变形实验中的不同岩石物理模型，一个组织依次评估其方法评估地下资产的方法的有效性，以评估地下CO 2的储存方法。促进了缓解气候变化的促进，以及通过地震层析成像，地震的文本延伸的例子表征和自主行星际机器人探索。
The goal of an investigation, scientific or otherwise, is usually to find answers to some specific set of questions about the state of nature: what is the seismic velocity structure? How likely is this volcano to erupt within a certain period? Does a subsurface reservoir contain resources of interest? Background research may reveal the existence of pertinent knowledge and information discovered previously, new data are normally acquired, and an inference problem is solved in order to answer the questions taking both all of the a priori information and the new data into account. Inverse theory, decision theory and the theory of experimental design provide methods to optimize the design of the investigation and to estimate results. However, those theories are normally set in the context of a particular model of the universe, with its particular parametrization. This requires the investigator to specify a priori a coherent utility (a function that describes the risks and rewards) of all possible outcomes under that parametrization. Quite commonly, the investigator may not be able to do this. Ideally an investigator would be able merely to pose a set of questions, define a set of constraints on the data types, acquisition costs and logistics, and provide a functional to relate the questions to any particular parameter space. Theory and methodology would then semi-autonomously drive the interrogation of the state of nature by optimally selecting one or more relevant models and parameter spaces, and designing, acquiring and analysing data, in order to best answer the questions. If necessary this could be done in a sequential or iterative manner, which potentially then involves changing the questions posed in each iteration based on both previous results and inspiration from the investigator. We present such a theory of interrogation in this paper. We review the relevant aspects of decision and design theory, and cast them in a framework where the investigator specifies a utility only at the level required by the general questions to be posed. Each model under consideration is then mapped into this utility space of possible answers. We then extend this framework to sequential investigations, where the outcome of each step may affect all aspects of the problem: the models entertained, the utilities and even the questions themselves. A variety of examples illustrates the generality of this method: an asset team investigating how best to exploit a subsurface reservoir, Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the Bayesian evidence for geophysical models, discriminating between different rock physics models of strain in laboratory deformation experiments, an organization sequentially assessing the effectiveness of its methods to evaluate subsurface assets, assessing whether subsurface CO 2 storage should be promoted for climate change mitigation, and examples running through the text of seismic tomography, earthquake characterization and autonomous interplanetary robotic exploration.
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Myung, Jay I.;Pitt, Mark A.
通讯作者：
Pitt, Mark A.