Spatiotemporal precipitation variations in the arid Central Asia in the context of global warming
Spatiotemporal precipitation variations in the arid Central Asia in the context of global warming
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全球变暖背景下中亚干旱区降水时空变化
DOI：
10.1007/s11430-011-4333-8
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发表时间：
2011-12-01
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Wang JinSong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chen FaHu;Huang Wei;Wang JinSong
利用气候研究中心（CRU）的月降水资料，分析了1930-2009年中亚干旱区（ACA）降水的时间变化及其区域差异。结果表明，近80年来，该地区年降水量总体呈增加趋势，冬季降水量增加趋势明显（0.7mm/10a）。ACA的降水变化也存在区域差异，可分为5个不同的亚区（I西哈萨克斯坦区，II东哈萨克斯坦区，III中亚平原区，IV吉尔吉斯斯坦区，和V伊朗高原区）。在两个北方亚区（I区和II区，大约在北纬45度以北），年降水量福尔斯在所有季节都相当均匀地下降，而在南部三个亚区，年降水量主要在冬季和春季下降（占年总降水量的80%）。近80年来，除西南部（V区）外，各亚区年降水量均呈增加趋势。第一和第三次区域的降水量显著增加。所有次区域年降水量的长期趋势主要取决于冬季降水量的趋势。此外，ACA的降水量有显着的年际变化。所有次区域都确定了2-3年周期，而南部三个次区域也确定了5-6年周期。除年际变化外，各次区域降水量均存在3-4个阶段性变化，最新的阶段性变化开始于20世纪70年代中后期。自20世纪70年代后期以来，大部分研究区域的降水量都在快速增加。总体而言，ACA降水对全球变暖的响应是复杂的。西风环流的变化可能是影响研究区降水变化的主要因素。
This study analyzed the temporal precipitation variations in the arid Central Asia (ACA) and their regional differences during 1930-2009 using monthly gridded precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). Our results showed that the annual precipitation in this westerly circulation dominated arid region is generally increasing during the past 80 years, with an apparent increasing trend (0.7 mm/10 a) in winter. The precipitation variations in ACA also differ regionally, which can be divided into five distinct subregions (I West Kazakhstan region, II East Kazakhstan region, III Central Asia Plains region, IV Kyrgyzstan region, and V Iran Plateau region). The annual precipitation falls fairly even on all seasons in the two northern subregions (regions I and II, approximately north of 45A degrees N), whereas the annual precipitation is falling mainly on winter and spring (accounting for up to 80% of the annual total precipitation) in the three southern subregions. The annual precipitation is increasing on all subregions except the southwestern ACA (subregion V) during the past 80 years. A significant increase in precipitation appeared in subregions I and III. The long-term trends in annual precipitation in all subregions are determined mainly by trends in winter precipitation. Additionally, the precipitation in ACA has significant interannual variations. The 2-3-year cycle is identified in all subregions, while the 5-6-year cycle is also found in the three southern subregions. Besides the inter-annual variations, there were 3-4 episodic precipitation variations in all subregions, with the latest episodic change that started in the mid- to late 1970s. The precipitations in most of the study regions are fast increasing since the late 1970s. Overall, the responses of ACA precipitation to global warming are complicated. The variations of westerly circulation are likely the major factors that influence the precipitation variations in the study region.