Speaking of Decisions: Precise Decision Language
Speaking of Decisions: Precise Decision Language
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说到决策：精确决策语言
DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Howard
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Howard
本文介绍了一种用于教学和实践决策分析的语言的发展现状，可以避免学生，客户和我们自己的困惑。目前使用的许多术语都是不准确的、《双城之战》晦涩难懂的或不必要的。将决策语言限制在准确、熟悉和基本的术语上有助于思想和理解的清晰度。为了说明所提倡的变化类型，我建议将依赖性与相关性、期望与价值、效用与价值相结合，并避免主观概率、信心、概率的不确定性、风险与不确定性之间的任何区别以及自然状态。我展示了如何在教学和实践中融入新术语。
This paper presents the current state of evolution of a language for teaching and practicing decision analysis that may avoid confusion of students, clients, and ourselves. Many of the terms currently used are inaccurate, arcane, or unnecessary. Restricting decision language to terms that are accurate, familiar, and fundamental contributes to clarity of thought and understanding. To illustrate the type of changes advocated, I propose replacingdependence withrelevance,expectation withe-value,utility withu-value, and eschewingsubjective probability,confidence,uncertainty about probability, any distinction betweenrisk and uncertainty, andstates of nature. I show how to incorporate the new terminology in teaching and practice.