Predicting turning point, duration and attack rate of COVID-19 outbreaks in major Western countries
Predicting turning point, duration and attack rate of COVID-19 outbreaks in major Western countries
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DOI：
10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109829
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
Wang, Lin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang, Xiaolei;Ma, Renjun;Wang, Lin
本文采用分段泊松模型分析了七国集团中六个西方国家（即加拿大、法国、德国、意大利、英国和美国）的COVID-19疫情每日新增病例数据。我们已考虑政府对COVID-19的干预措施（居家建议╱命令、封锁、隔离及社交距离）。我们的分析使我们能够对这些国家的转折点（每日新病例达到峰值的时间）、持续时间（疫情持续的时间）和发病率（疫情期间感染的总人口的百分比）进行统计预测。(C)2020爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
In this paper, we employed a segmented Poisson model to analyze the available daily new cases data of the COVID-19 outbreaks in the six Western countries of the Group of Seven, namely, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK and USA. We incorporated the governments' interventions (stay-at-home advises/orders, lockdowns, quarantines and social distancing) against COVID-19 into consideration. Our analysis allowed us to make a statistical prediction on the turning point (the time that the daily new cases peak), the duration (the period that the outbreak lasts) and the attack rate (the percentage of the total population that will be infected over the course of the outbreak) for these countries. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.