Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century
Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1301293110
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发表时间：
2013-07-23
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Emanuel, Kerry A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Emanuel, Kerry A.
一种最近开发的用于在由全球网格数据描述的气候状态下模拟大量（数量级为10⁴）热带气旋的技术，被应用于对由六个耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）全球气候模式模拟的历史和未来气候状态的模拟。将从1950 - 2005年期间的气候降尺度得到的热带气旋与在规定温室气体辐射强迫比工业化前的值增加8.5瓦/平方米的模拟中21世纪的热带气旋进行比较。与大多数全球模式中明确出现的风暴不同，在大多数地区，降尺度后的热带气旋频率在21世纪有所增加。以最大风速衡量的此类风暴的强度也有所增加，这与先前的结果一致。热带气旋活动的增加在西北太平洋最为显著，但在除西南太平洋以外的其他地区也很明显。事件频率的增加与基于全球模式月平均输出的生成潜力指数的增加是一致的。这些结果与关于全球变暖对热带气旋影响的其他推论进行了比较和对比。
A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(10(4))] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950-2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by 8: 5 W.m(-2) over pre-industrial values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds, also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output. These results are compared and contrasted with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones.