Climate change in Argentina: trends, projections, impacts and adaptation
Climate change in Argentina: trends, projections, impacts and adaptation
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DOI：
10.1002/wcc.316
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发表时间：
2015-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
V. Barros;J. Boninsegna;I. Camilloni;M. Chidiak;G. Magrin;M. Rusticucci
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
V. Barros;J. Boninsegna;I. Camilloni;M. Chidiak;G. Magrin;M. Rusticucci
在阿根廷的大部分地区，自1901年以来的变暖略低于全球平均水平，尽管最近几十年的极端气温和热浪有很强的趋势。阿根廷大部分亚热带地区的降水量显著增加，尤其是自1960年以来。这有利于农业产量和农田向半干旱地区的扩展，但这种增加也伴随着更频繁的暴雨和随之而来的农村和城市地区的洪水。自20世纪70年代初以来，普拉塔盆地的主要河流增加了平均流量，但这不仅是由于降雨量增加，而且是由于土地利用的变化。相比之下，在安第斯山脉，降雨量减少和气温上升导致冰川消退，河流流量减少。对本世纪上半叶的气候预测保持了已观察到的趋势，并提出了更多的关切，即在大多数情况下可以通过及时的适应政策加以处理。然而，到本世纪末，在极端排放的情况下，按照目前的条件，该国北部的预计升温将达到3.5摄氏度。没有足够的知识认为这种变暖不会对阿根廷人民和经济造成严重损害。由于热浪和极端降水事件已经造成的破坏和伤亡，首先也是最紧迫的适应需要是加强早期预警系统和应急规划，以应对极端气候及其对健康的影响。钢丝胶片更换2015，6：151-169。DOI：10.1002/wcc.316
In most of Argentina, the warming since 1901 was a little lower than the global average, although with strong trends in temperature extremes and in heat waves during the most recent decades. There was a remarkable increase in precipitation over most of subtropical Argentina, especially since 1960. This has favored agriculture yields and the extension of crop lands into semiarid regions, but this increase also came with more frequent heavy rainfalls and consequent flooding of rural and urban areas. Since the early 1970s, the main rivers of the Plata Basin have increased their mean flows, but this was attributable not only to increased precipitation, but also to land use changes. In contrast, over the Andes Mountains, reduced rainfall and increased temperature has led to glaciers receding and reduced river flows. Climate projections for the first half of this century maintain observed trends and raise additional concerns that in most cases can be dealt with timely adaptation policies. However, by the end of this century, under an extreme emissions scenario, the projected warming reaches 3.5°C in the north of the country with respect to present‐day conditions. There is insufficient knowledge to assume that this warming would not create severe damages to the people and the economy of Argentina. Because of the damages and casualties that heat waves and extreme precipitation events are already producing, the first and most urgent adaptation required is to reinforce early warning systems and contingency planning to cope with climatic extremes and their consequences on health. WIREs Clim Change 2015, 6:151–169. doi: 10.1002/wcc.316