Marked Impacts of Pollution Mitigation on Crop Yields in China
Marked Impacts of Pollution Mitigation on Crop Yields in China
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DOI：
10.1029/2022ef002936
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发表时间：
2022-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Yung, Yuk L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
He, Liyin;Wei, Jing;Yung, Yuk L.
植物生长和作物收获受到气候变化和空气污染的双重影响。然而，它们对作物产量的相对重要性仍然难以捉摸，特别是在污染严重的地区。本文基于1980年以来中国的大量历史作物数据以及气候和污染记录，开发了作物产量预测模型。从机器学习模型和各种观测数据中开发了长期表面臭氧浓度数据集。通过对四种气候和污染因子的评估，揭示了颗粒物和臭氧污染在调节中国作物产量年际变化中的关键作用。2010-2018年期间，尽管华北平原臭氧增加，但颗粒物污染的缓解超过了同期气候变化的负面影响，导致全国净产量增加0.5%-1.9%。展望未来，气候变化的影响，特别是地表温度升高的影响，将超过污染因素，到2050年，玉米和水稻产量将大幅减少0.6 - 2.8%。我们的研究结果呼吁人们关注污染缓解措施的缺失和全球变暖的持续存在对未来全球粮食安全的威胁。
Plant growth and crop harvest are impacted by both climate change and air pollution. However, their relative importance in crop yields remains elusive, especially in heavily polluted regions. Here we develop crop yield prediction models, based on a large volume of historical crop data, as well as climate and pollution records in China since 1980. A long-term surface ozone concentration data set is developed from a machine-learning model and various observations. An assessment of four climate and pollution factors reveals the critical role of particulate and ozone pollution in regulating interannual variations of crop yields in China. During 2010-2018, we find that the particulate pollution mitigation outweighs the negative impacts of concurrent climate change, resulting in 0.5%-1.9% net yield increases nationwide, despite of the ozone increases in the North China Plain. Looking to the future, the impacts of climate change, particularly from surface temperature increase, will dominate over pollution factors and profoundly reduce future maize and rice yields by 0.6 to 2.8% 10 yr(-1) by 2050. Our findings call for attention on the threat to future global food security from the absence of pollution mitigation and the persistence of global warming.