A data-driven roadmap for creep-fatigue reliability assessment and its implementation in low-pressure turbine disk at elevated temperatures
A data-driven roadmap for creep-fatigue reliability assessment and its implementation in low-pressure turbine disk at elevated temperatures
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ress.2022.108523
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发表时间：
2022-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Run-Zi Wang;Hang-Hang Gu-Hang;Shun‐Peng Zhu;Kai-Shang Li;Ji Wang;Xiao-Wei Wang;Miura Hideo;
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文献类型：
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作者：
Run-Zi Wang;Hang-Hang Gu-Hang;Shun‐Peng Zhu;Kai-Shang Li;Ji Wang;Xiao-Wei Wang;Miura Hideo;
高可靠性的寿命设计过程不仅可以保证系统的安全使用，而且可以在维修期间提供科学的寿命管理。本工作的目的是制定蠕变疲劳可靠性评估的路线图。介绍了蠕变疲劳的材料级数据积累和理论基础，包括蠕变疲劳本构模型和多轴损伤模型。然后，以典型蠕变疲劳载荷波形下的低压涡轮盘为例，演示了如何在实践中使用该路线图进行蠕变疲劳可靠性评估。在涡轮盘榫接处精确识别出弱点热点。基于热点策略的代理模型在优化的机器学习方法辅助下显著提高了计算效率。因此，考虑多源不确定性的蠕变疲劳寿命服从对数正态分布。在失效概率分析方面，与主要用于低周疲劳领域的传统方法相比，现有的蠕变-疲劳交互作用概率损伤交互图方法具有保守的可靠性评估和良好的通用性。最后，讨论了涡轮盘的联合失效评估，综合考虑了平均热区的潜在失效，而不是单一热点。
High-reliability life design process not only can ensure system safety in service, but also can provide scientific life management during the maintenance period. The objective of the present work is to develop a roadmap for creep-fatigue reliability assessment. Material-level data accumulations and theoretical foundations of creep-fatigue including creep-fatigue constitutive and multi-axial damage models are introduced. Afterwards, a low-pressure turbine disk under a typical creep-fatigue load waveform is applied as a case study to demonstrate how to perform creep-fatigue reliability assessment by using this roadmap in practice. Precise weakness hotspots are identified at the mortise joint of turbine disk. Based on hotspot-based strategy, it is found that the surrogate model assisted by an optimized machine learning method enhances significantly the computational efficiency. Accordingly, the probabilistic creep-fatigue life with considering multi-sources uncertainty obeys lognormal distributions. In the aspect of failure probability analysis, the current probabilistic damage interaction diagram method with creep-fatigue interaction gives conservative reliability assessments and excellent universality as compared to traditional ones mainly used in the low cycle fatigue field. Last but not least, joint failure evaluation of the turbine disk is discussed to comprehensively consider potential failure occurrence in an averaged hot region instead of a single hotspot.