Completeness assessment of earthquake catalogues under uncertain knowledge
Completeness assessment of earthquake catalogues under uncertain knowledge
复制标题
不确定知识下地震目录的完整性评估
DOI：
10.1007/s10950-014-9448-x
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
L. Esteva
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Alamilla;R. Vai;L. Esteva
本文提出了一个概率模型来量化用于估计震源活动的地震目录的完整性水平。这个变量，与一个给定震级的事件被记录在地震目录中的概率有关，反映了关于目录信息的偶然性和认识上的不确定性。提出了两种估计完整性水平的备选方法：一种是涉及到一个目录，怀疑是不完整的整个震级范围内的利益，因为监测网络是无法检测到所有地震事件的发生，另一种是涉及到一个地震目录被认为是几乎完整的一个给定的阈值震级以上。对于给定的幅度的完整性概率描述的显式的完整性函数的参数被视为随机变量描述的后验联合概率密度函数的基础上的贝叶斯估计。两个案例研究：第一个延伸到整个墨西哥湾的地震目录怀疑或已知是不完整的，第二个对应于一个地震源，覆盖一段沿着墨西哥西南海岸，地震目录已知几乎是完整的。
A probabilistic model is proposed to quantify the completeness levels of earthquake catalogues used for the estimation of the activity of seismic sources. This variable, related to the probability that an event of a given magnitude is recorded in the earthquake catalogue, reflects both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties about the catalogue information. Two alternative approaches are presented for the estimation of the completeness levels: one is related to a catalogue suspected to be incomplete throughout the magnitude range of interest because the monitoring network is not capable of detecting the occurrence of all seismic events and the other is related to an earthquake catalogue considered to be almost complete above a given threshold magnitude. The completeness probabilities for given magnitudes are described by explicit completeness functions whose parameters are treated as random variables described by their posterior joint probability density function based on a Bayesian estimation. Two case studies are presented: The first one extends throughout the Gulf of Mexico with a seismic catalogue suspected or known to be incomplete and the second one corresponds to a seismic source covering a segment along the southwest coast of Mexico, with an earthquake catalogue known to be almost complete.