Global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2013 and projections for 2035
Global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2013 and projections for 2035
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DOI：
10.1016/j.diabres.2013.11.002
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发表时间：
2014-02-01
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Shaw, J. E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guariguata, L.;Whiting, D. R.;Shaw, J. E.
简介：糖尿病是一个严重的和日益增加的全球健康负担和患病率的估计是必要的适当的资源分配和监测的trends.Methods：我们进行了文献检索的研究报告的特定年龄的糖尿病患病率，并使用层次分析法系统地选择研究，以产生估计219个国家和地区。没有可用源数据的国家的估计数是根据在地理、种族和经济发展方面相似的国家的汇总估计数建模的。采用Logistic回归方法对20-79岁成年人的年龄别患病率进行平滑估计，然后将其应用于2013年和2035年的人口估计。结果：共考虑了744个数据源，包括174个，代表130个国家。2013年，有3.82亿人患有糖尿病;预计到2035年，这一数字将上升到5.92亿。大多数糖尿病患者生活在低收入和中等收入国家，这些国家的糖尿病病例将在未来22年内增加最多。结论：成人糖尿病的新估计证实了糖尿病的巨大负担，特别是在发展中国家。估计数将每年更新，包括现有的最新高质量数据。(C)2013爱思唯尔爱尔兰有限公司版权所有。
Introduction: Diabetes is a serious and increasing global health burden and estimates of prevalence are essential for appropriate allocation of resources and monitoring of trends.Methods: We conducted a literature search of studies reporting the age-specific prevalence for diabetes and used the Analytic Hierarchy Process to systematically select studies to generate estimates for 219 countries and territories. Estimates for countries without available source data were modelled from pooled estimates of countries that were similar in regard to geography, ethnicity, and economic development. Logistic regression was applied to generate smoothed age-specific prevalence estimates for adults 20-79 years which were then applied to population estimates for 2013 and 2035.Results: A total of 744 data sources were considered and 174 included, representing 130 countries. In 2013, 382 million people had diabetes; this number is expected to rise to 592 million by 2035. Most people with diabetes live in low- and middle-income countries and these will experience the greatest increase in cases of diabetes over the next 22 years.Conclusion: The new estimates of diabetes in adults confirm the large burden of diabetes, especially in developing countries. Estimates will be updated annually including the most recent, high-quality data available. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.