Effects of sample size in dendroclimatology
Effects of sample size in dendroclimatology
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DOI：
10.3354/cr01107
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发表时间：
2012-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Cook, Edward R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Buentgen, Ulf;Tegel, Willy;Cook, Edward R.
与预测的人为气候变化的速度和幅度相关的不确定性凸显了我们对地球气候系统过去自然波动的理解的必要性。这项任务强调了涵盖工业和前工业时代的高分辨率古气候记录的重要性。每年解析和绝对过时的树木年轮测量是跨学科研究的关键输入。然而，由于数据缺乏而导致的模糊性是许多树木年轮数据分析的特点。通过利用来自欧洲冷杉的近 12000 个现存和历史年轮宽度系列，我们展示了大规模样本复制如何能够对过去的生长率产生可靠的估计，这可能有助于减少与许多传统树木年轮研究相关的方法和统计限制。
Uncertainty related to the rate and magnitude of predicted anthropogenic climate change highlights the need to enhance our understanding of past natural fluctuations in the Earth's climate system. This task emphasizes the importance of high-resolution palaeoclimatic records that cover industrial and pre-industrial times. Annually resolved and absolutely dated tree-ring measurements are a key input for cross-disciplinary research. Ambiguity due to paucity of data, however, characterizes many tree-ring data analyses. By utilizing nearly 12 000 living and historical ring width series from European fir Abies alba Mill., we demonstrate how massive sample replication can generate robust estimates of past growth rates, which may help reduce methodological and statistical constraints associated with many traditional tree-ring studies.