Economic impact of refugees
Economic impact of refugees
复制标题
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1604566113
复制
发表时间：
2016-07-05
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Gonzalez-Estrada, Ernesto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Taylor, J. Edward;Filipski, Mateusz J.;Gonzalez-Estrada, Ernesto
2015年，联合国难民事务高级专员公署收容了1500多万难民，其中大部分在发展中国家的难民营。世界粮食计划署以现金或实物的形式向这些难民提供粮食援助。难民对收容国的影响是有争议的，也很少有人了解。这项独特的研究分析了难民对卢旺达三个刚果难民营10公里半径范围内东道国经济的影响。使用蒙特卡罗方法进行的模拟显示，对难民的现金援助对东道国的企业和家庭产生了显著的积极收入溢出效应。每增加一名接受现金援助的成年难民，当地经济的年真实的收入就会增加205至253美元，大大超过每个难民接受的120至126美元援助。当地经济与卢旺达其他地区之间的贸易额增加了49美元，达到55美元。实物粮食援助的影响较小，这一发现与一般发展援助有关。
In 2015, the United Nations High Commission for Refugees accommodated over 15 million refugees, mostly in refugee camps in developing countries. The World Food Program provided these refugees with food aid, in cash or in kind. Refugees' impacts on host countries are controversial and little understood. This unique study analyzes the economic impacts of refugees on host-country economies within a 10-km radius of three Congolese refugee camps in Rwanda. Simulations using Monte Carlo methods reveal that cash aid to refugees creates significant positive income spillovers to host-country businesses and households. An additional adult refugee receiving cash aid increases annual real income in the local economy by $205 to $253, significantly more than the $120-$126 in aid each refugee receives. Trade between the local economy and the rest of Rwanda increases by $49 to $55. The impacts are lower for in-kind food aid, a finding relevant to development aid generally.