The Impact of the Recent Migration from Eastern Europe on the UK Economy
The Impact of the Recent Migration from Eastern Europe on the UK Economy
复制标题
最近东欧移民对英国经济的影响
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.969406
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Chris Shadforth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
David G. Blanchflower;Jumana Saleheen;Chris Shadforth
与其他国家相比，英国在过去35年中的人口增长非常低；1971年至2004年间，英国人口仅增长了7%，低于除德国以外的所有其他欧盟15国。自世纪之交以来，英国人口以更快的速度增长，主要是由于净移民的变化，特别是来自八个东欧(A8)国家的移民涌入。工人登记计划和国家保险号申请似乎有一致的证据表明，2004年5月至2006年底期间，大约有500,000名来自A8国家的移民来英国工作。但其他消息来源显示，这些工人中大约有一半可能已经返回原籍国。我们认为，目前看来，A8移民增加的供应往往超过了它对英国需求的增加(短期内)。我们认为，这种移民流动减轻了通胀压力，降低了自然失业率。
UK population growth over the last thirty-five years has been remarkably low in comparison with other countries; the population grew by just 7% between 1971 and 2004, less than all the other EU15 countries except Germany. The UK population has grown at a faster pace since the turn of the millennium driven primarily by changes in net migration, and in particular from an influx of migrants from eight East European (A8) countries. There appears to be consistent evidence from the Worker Registration Scheme and National Insurance Number applications that approximately 500,000 migrants from the A8 countries had come to work in the UK between May 2004 and late 2006. But other sources suggest approximately half of these workers have likely returned to their country of origin. We argue that, at present, it appears that A8 immigration has tended to increase supply by more than it has increased demand in the UK (in the short run). This migration flow, we argue, has acted to reduce inflationary pressures and to lower the natural rate of unemployment.