Probability of Success in the Ophthalmology Residency Match: Three-Year Outcomes Analysis of San Francisco Matching Program Data.
Probability of Success in the Ophthalmology Residency Match: Three-Year Outcomes Analysis of San Francisco Matching Program Data.
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DOI：
10.1055/s-0038-1673675
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Feldon, Steven
中科院分区：
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作者：
Siatkowski, R Michael;Mian, Shahzad I;Feldon, Steven
目的：利用旧金山匹配计划(SF Match)的数据建立美国眼科住院医师项目匹配的概率模型。设计：对不确定的申请和匹配数据进行回顾性数据分析。伙伴：SF Match进行的2013、2014和2015年眼科住院医师匹配的注册人员。方法：对候选人进行描述性统计，比较匹配和不匹配候选人之间的连续变量和分类变量，并进行线性回归建模。结果：在3年的时间里，平均1,959人提交了的申请，平均收到了9份面试邀请。总体匹配率为71%，其中78%的人在他们的前五个选择之一匹配。美国医学院毕业生(78%比20%，P<；0.001)和第一次尝试的申请者(76%比29%，P<；0.001)更有可能匹配成功。在>；48个应用程序中，匹配与应用程序数量之间的关联变为负值。在第一阶段美国执业资格考试(USMLE)成绩为243分(无论申请了多少个项目)、第一阶段USMLE成绩在231到243之间、申请了至少30个项目的美国毕业生中，匹配的可能性很高(>；80%)，以及第一阶段成绩为232分的首次申请者。没有国际医学毕业生或重复申请者匹配的概率很高。结论：虽然建议必须针对每个候选人个性化，但眼科住院医生的申请者属于匹配概率较高的一组，很可能成功申请45个或更少的项目。国际医学毕业生和/或以前不匹配的申请者应该考虑申请80个或更多的项目。修改比赛申请数据表单可以允许对变量进行更详细的分析，例如Alpha Omega Alpha或金牌人文主义荣誉协会成员、研究活动和对标准化推荐信的综合评估。
OBJECTIVE: To develop a probability model of matching into a US ophthalmology residency program using San Francisco Matching Program (SF Match) data.DESIGN: Retrospective data analysis of de-identified application and matching data.PARTICIPANTS: Registrants for the 2013, 2014, and 2015 ophthalmology residency matches conducted by the SF Match.METHODS: Descriptive statistics of candidates, comparison of continuous and categorical variables between matched and nonmatched candidates, and linear regression modeling were performed. A recursive partitioning method was used to create a probability of matching algorithm.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Probability of successfully matching based on quantifiable candidate characteristics.RESULTS: Over the 3-year period, 1,959 individuals submitted an average of 64 applications and received a mean of nine interview invitations. The overall match rate was 71%, with 78% matching at one of their top five choices. Successful matches were more likely to occur in US medical school graduates (78% vs 20%, p < 0.001) and applicants on their first attempt (76% vs 29%, p < 0.001). The association between matching and number of programs applied became negative with > 48 applications. Probability of matching was "high" (> 80%) among US graduates with a step 1 United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE)score>243(regardless of number of programs applied to), a step 1 USMLE score of 231 to 243 who applied to at least 30 programs, and first-time applicants with a step 1 score >232. No international medical graduates or repeat applicants had a "high" probability of matching.CONCLUSIONS: Although advice must be individualized for each candidate, applicants for ophthalmology residency who fall into a "high" probability of matching group are likely to be successful with applications to 45 or fewer programs. Applying to 80 or more programs should be considered for international medical graduates and/or applicants who are previously unmatched. Modification of the match application data form may allow more detailed analysis of variables such as Alpha Omega Alpha or Gold Humanism Honor Society membership, research activity, and composite evaluation on a standardized letter of recommendation.