Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany
Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany
复制标题
气候变化对德国热浪和未来热浪相关 IHD 死亡率的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
H. Mücke
中科院分区：
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作者：
Stefan Zacharias;C. Koppe;H. Mücke
研究了未来气候变化对热浪发生的影响及其对德国与热浪相关的缺血性心脏病（IHD）死亡率的影响。分析了19个空间分辨率为0.25° × 0.25°的区域气候模式在中等气候变化情景A1 B强迫下的模拟结果。模式的时间周期为30年，分别代表现在的气候（1971-2000年），近期的气候（2021-2050年）和遥远的未来的气候（2069-2098年）。热浪的定义是至少连续三天的日平均气温高于全季温度分布的第97.5百分位数。根据模型模拟，未来德国的热浪将更加频繁，持续时间更长，强度更大。到世纪末，热浪的数量将是目前气候的三倍。此外，热浪的平均持续时间将增加25%，热浪期间的平均温度将增加约1 K。区域分析表明，特别是在德国南部地区，观察到的气候变化影响强于平均水平。此外，我们调查了气候变化对德国IHD死亡率的影响，将19个区域气候模型的温度预测应用于先前研究中确定的热浪死亡率关系。在不存在和存在一定适应的情况下计算未来IHD过量死亡（即，人们能够在生理上适应未来时间段内分别增加0%和50%的温度水平）。除了热浪频率的变化，我们还将热浪强度和持续时间的变化纳入未来的死亡率评估。结果表明，到21世纪末，在适应和非适应方法中，预计德国每年因热浪导致的IHD超额死亡人数将分别增加2.4倍和5.1倍。尽管各个模型的模拟存在很大的差异，但未来的热量负担很可能会大幅增加。所获得的结果指出，公共卫生干预措施，以减少人口的脆弱性热浪。
The influence of future climate change on the occurrence of heat waves and its implications for heat wave-related mortality due to ischemic heart diseases (IHD) in Germany is studied. Simulations of 19 regional climate models with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° forced by the moderate climate change scenario A1B are analyzed. Three model time periods of 30 years are evaluated, representing present climate (1971–2000), near future climate (2021–2050), and remote future climate (2069–2098). Heat waves are defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with daily mean air temperature above the 97.5th percentile of the all-season temperature distribution. Based on the model simulations, future heat waves in Germany will be significantly more frequent, longer lasting and more intense. By the end of the 21st century, the number of heat waves will be tripled compared to present climate. Additionally, the average duration of heat waves will increase by 25%, accompanied by an increase of the average temperature during heat waves by about 1 K. Regional analyses show that stronger than average climate change effects are observed particularly in the southern regions of Germany. Furthermore, we investigated climate change impacts on IHD mortality in Germany applying temperature projections from 19 regional climate models to heat wave mortality relationships identified in a previous study. Future IHD excess deaths were calculated both in the absence and presence of some acclimatization (i.e., that people are able to physiologically acclimatize to enhanced temperature levels in the future time periods by 0% and 50%, respectively). In addition to changes in heat wave frequency, we incorporated also changes in heat wave intensity and duration into the future mortality evaluations. The results indicate that by the end of the 21st century the annual number of IHD excess deaths in Germany attributable to heat waves is expected to rise by factor 2.4 and 5.1 in the acclimatization and non-acclimatization approach, respectively. Even though there is substantial variability across the individual model simulations, it is most likely that the future burden of heat will increase considerably. The obtained results point to public health interventions to reduce the vulnerability of the population to heat waves.