Effects of demand-side restrictions on high-deforestation palm oil in Europe on deforestation and emissions in Indonesia
Effects of demand-side restrictions on high-deforestation palm oil in Europe on deforestation and emissions in Indonesia
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac435e
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发表时间：
2022-01-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Hertel, Thomas W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Busch, Jonah;Amarjargal, Oyut;Hertel, Thomas W.
作为一项气候政策，对高毁林率商品的需求方限制正在扩大，但其对减少热带森林砍伐和排放的影响尚未量化。在这里，我们模拟了欧洲对高森林砍伐棕榈油的需求侧限制对印度尼西亚森林砍伐和排放的影响。我们这样做是通过整合全球贸易模型与空间明确的模型在印度尼西亚的土地利用变化。我们估计，欧洲在2000年至2015年禁止高毁林棕榈油将导致全球低毁林棕榈油价格溢价8.9%，导致印度尼西亚森林砍伐减少21374公顷/年（-1）（1.60%），森林砍伐减少2110万吨CO（2）/年（-1）（1.91%）。一个假设的全亚洲碳价格将实现相当于0.81美元/吨CO的减排量（2）。禁令的影响很小，因为：欧洲52%的高森林砍伐棕榈油进口将转移到非参与国;高森林砍伐油棕榈农田供应的价格弹性很小（0.13）;在印度尼西亚，只有32%的森林砍伐是由转油棕榈造成的。如果需求方面的限制措施成功地大幅度减少了毁林，那么很可能是通过非价格途径。
Demand-side restrictions on high-deforestation commodities are expanding as a climate policy, but their impact on reducing tropical deforestation and emissions has yet to be quantified. Here we model the effects of demand-side restrictions on high-deforestation palm oil in Europe on deforestation and emissions in Indonesia. We do so by integrating a model of global trade with a spatially explicit model of land-use change in Indonesia. We estimate a European ban on high-deforestation palm oil from 2000 to 2015 would have led to a 8.9% global price premium on low-deforestation palm oil, resulting in 21 374 ha yr(-1) (1.60%) less deforestation and 21.1 million tCO(2) yr(-1) (1.91%) less emissions from deforestation in Indonesia relative to what occurred. A hypothetical Indonesia-wide carbon price would have achieved equivalent emission reductions at $0.81/tCO(2). Impacts of a ban are small because: 52% of Europe's imports of high-deforestation palm oil would have shifted to non-participating countries; the price elasticity of supply of high-deforestation oil palm cropland is small (0.13); and conversion to oil palm was responsible for only 32% of deforestation in Indonesia. If demand-side restrictions succeed in substantially reducing deforestation, it is likely to be through non-price pathways.