New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis
New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis
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DOI：
10.1257/mac.1.1.242
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发表时间：
2008-09
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
V. Chari;P. Kehoe;Ellen R Mcgrattan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
V. Chari;P. Kehoe;Ellen R Mcgrattan
宏观经济学家在方法、模型设计、简化形式的冲击和政策建议的原则上基本趋同。我们今天的主要分歧是关于方法的实施。有些人认为新凯恩斯主义模型可以用于季度间的量化政策建议;我们不这么认为。关注这些模型的最新版本，我们认为它的一些冲击和其他特征不是结构性的，也不符合微观经济证据。由于一个准确的结构模型是必不可少的可靠评估政策的影响，我们得出结论，新凯恩斯主义的模型还没有用于政策分析。
Macroeconomists have largely converged on method, model design, reduced-form shocks, and principles of policy advice. Our main disagreements today are about implementing the methodology. Some think New Keynesian models are ready to be used for quarter-to-quarter quantitative policy advice; we do not. Focusing on the state-of-the-art version of these models, we argue that some of its shocks and other features are not structural or consistent with microeconomic evidence. Since an accurate structural model is essential to reliably evaluate the effects of policies, we conclude that New Keynesian models are not yet useful for policy analysis.