Estimation of the Likelihood of Fecal-Oral HEV Transmission Among Pigs
Estimation of the Likelihood of Fecal-Oral HEV Transmission Among Pigs
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01546.x
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发表时间：
2011-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Husman, Ana Maria de Roda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bouwknegt, Martijn;Teunis, Peter F. M.;Husman, Ana Maria de Roda
基因3型人戊型肝炎病毒（HEV）感染的来源在很大程度上是未知的。猪是戊肝病毒潜在的动物宿主。当猪被确认为人类感染的来源时，可能需要在猪场进行干预，需要了解传播途径。这些路线目前尚未得到充分研究。目前的研究旨在量化猪粪便因口服摄入而引起猪新戊肝病毒感染的可能性。我们通过模拟HEV在粪-口（F-O）途径中的命运来估计猪的每日感染风险。使用作者基于当前知识认为最合理的参数值，每日感染风险为0.85（95%区间：0.03-1）。与猪传播实验中观察到的0.7例相比，相关的每日新感染预期数与4例相似（2.5%极限0.1,97%极限趋于无穷大），粪便引起传播的可能性接近1。在其他情况下，HEV的F-O传播也很可能引起新的感染。通过将所有解释变量的总价值降低2个数量级，新感染猪的预期数量接近观察到的数量。F-O传播的可能性随着参数值的降低而降低，最多94%的感染是由其他传播途径引起的。然而，在所有情况下，估计F-O传播有助于HEV传播。因此，尽管通过口服接种很难使猪感染HEV，但F-O途径很可能导致HEV在猪之间传播。
Sources for human hepatitis E virus (HEV) infections of genotype 3 are largely unknown. Pigs are potential animal reservoirs for HEV. Intervention at pig farms may be desired when pigs are confirmed as a source for human infections, requiring knowledge about transmission routes. These routes are currently understudied. The current study aims to quantify the likelihood of pig feces in causing new HEV infections in pigs due to oral ingestion. We estimated the daily infection risk for pigs by modeling the fate of HEV in the fecal-oral (F-O) pathway. Using parameter values deemed most plausible by the authors based on current knowledge the daily risk of infection was 0.85 (95% interval: 0.03-1). The associated expected number of new infections per day was similar to 4 (2.5% limit 0.1, the 97% limit tending to infinity) compared to 0.7 observed in a transmission experiment with pigs, and the likelihood of feces causing the transmission approached 1. In alternative scenarios, F-O transmission of HEV was also very likely to cause new infections. By reducing the total value of all explanatory variables by 2 orders of magnitude, the expected numbers of newly infected pigs approached the observed number. The likelihood of F-O transmission decreased by decreasing parameter values, allowing for at most 94% of infections being caused by additional transmission routes. Nevertheless, in all scenarios F-O transmission was estimated to contribute to HEV transmission. Thus, despite the difficulty in infecting pigs with HEV via oral inoculation, the F-O route is likely to cause HEV transmission among pigs.