Likelihood of early detection of breast cancer in relation to false-positive risk in life-time mammographic screening: population-based cohort study
Likelihood of early detection of breast cancer in relation to false-positive risk in life-time mammographic screening: population-based cohort study
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DOI：
10.1093/annonc/mdt227
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发表时间：
2013-10-01
影响因子：
50.5
通讯作者：
Verbeek, A. L. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Otten, J. D. M.;Fracheboud, J.;Verbeek, A. L. M.
女性在参加两年一次的乳房X线检查之前，在做出关于筛查益处和危害的知情决定时需要平衡的高质量信息。使用Nijmegen项目的数据估计了50岁女性从筛查开始连续13次筛查检查的假阳性回忆和/或（小）筛查检测或间隔癌症的累积风险，在1975-1976年期间接受13次连续筛查的妇女有5.3%的累积筛查发现癌症的机会，有4.2%的风险至少有一次假阳性回忆。被诊断为间歇性癌症的风险为3.7%。20年后，这些估计值分别为6.9%、7.3%和2.9%。预计正常预期寿命的小而有利的浸润性乳腺癌的检出率从2.3%上升到3.7%。外推到数字筛查乳腺X射线摄影表明，假阳性结果的比例将上升到16%.The荷兰妇女即将参加筛查计划可以放心，假阳性回忆的机会在荷兰相对较低。一项新的筛查政策和改进的乳房X光检查增加了早期筛查癌症的发现，降低了间隔期癌症的风险。
Women require balanced, high-quality information when making an informed decision on screening benefits and harms before attending biennial mammographic screening.The cumulative risk of a false-positive recall and/or (small) screen-detected or interval cancer over 13 consecutive screening examinations for women aged 50 from the start of screening were estimated using data from the Nijmegen programme, the Netherlands.Women who underwent 13 successive screens in the period 1975-1976 had a 5.3% cumulative chance of a screen-detected cancer, with a 4.2% risk of at least one false-positive recall. The risk of being diagnosed with interval cancer was 3.7%. Two decades later, these estimates were 6.9%, 7.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The chance of detection of a small, favourable invasive breast cancer, anticipating a normal life-expectancy, rose from 2.3% to 3.7%. Extrapolation to digital screening mammography indicates that the proportion of false-positive results will rise to 16%.Dutch women about to participate in the screening programme can be reassured that the chance of false-positive recall in the Netherlands is relatively low. A new screening policy and improved mammography have increased the detection of an early screening carcinoma and lowering the risk of interval carcinoma.