It Ain't Broke: The Past, Present, and Future of Venture Capital
It Ain't Broke: The Past, Present, and Future of Venture Capital
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它没有破产：风险投资的过去、现在和未来
DOI：
10.1111/j.1745-6622.2010.00272.x
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Lerner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Kaplan;J. Lerner
本文介绍了美国风险投资（VC）行业的历史，讨论了市场的现状，并对市场的发展方向进行了一些预测。毫无疑问，美国的风险投资业非常成功。风险投资模式为一个难题提供了一个有效的解决方案，即让那些有前途的想法但通常记录有限的人从外部投资者那里筹集资金。很大一部分IPO，包括许多最成功的IPO，都是由风险投资家资助的，美国的风险投资模式已经被世界各地复制。基于这种历史视角，作者对最近关于风险投资模式被打破的说法持怀疑态度。在过去，风险投资在公司中的投资占股票市场总价值的0.15%非常稳定;而对风险投资基金的承诺虽然变化更大，但一直在0.10%至0.20%的范围内。近年来，这两个百分比继续保持不变。尽管IPO数量相对较低，但这十年来风险投资基金的回报率在很大程度上保持了与整体股市的历史关系。可以肯定的是，风险投资和回报继续受到繁荣和萧条周期的影响。但是，如果说最近一段时间具有大部分泡沫破裂的特征，那么作者认为，目前对美国风险投资基金的承诺处于历史低位，这是一个相当可靠的指标，表明2009年和（可能）2010年的预期回报率相对较高。正如作者最后所建议的那样，风险资本未来最有希望的作用也许是通过各种伙伴关系和外包安排来提高公司研发职能的生产力。
This article presents a selective history of the U.S. venture capital (VC) industry, a discussion of the current state of the market, and some predictions about where the market is going. There is no doubt that the U.S. venture capital industry has been very successful. The VC model has provided an efficient solution to a difficult problem—that of enabling people with promising ideas but often limited track records to raise capital from outside investors. A large fraction of IPOs, including many of the most successful, have been funded by venture capitalists, and the U.S. VC model has been copied around the world. Armed with this historical perspective, the authors view with skepticism the recent claims that the VC model is broken. In the past, VC investments in companies have represented a remarkably constant 0.15% of the total value of the stock market; and commitments to VC funds, while more variable, have been consistently in the 0.10% to 0.20% range. Both of these percentages have continued to hold in recent years. And despite the relatively low number of IPOs, the returns to VC funds this decade have largely maintained their historical relationship to the overall stock market. To be sure, VC investment and returns continue to be subject to boom‐and‐bust cycles. But if the recent period has most of the features of a bust, the authors view today's historically low level of commitments to U.S. VC funds as a fairly reliable indicator of relatively high expected returns for the 2009 and (probably) 2010 vintage years. Perhaps the most promising future role for venture capital, as the authors suggest in closing, is to increase the productivity of the corporate research and development function through various kinds of partnerships and outsourcing arrangements.